Population Issues Of
Developed Countries
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Main page Fertility, mortality and migration
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 Below Replacement Fertility
According to the demographic transition theory, fertility will decline and stabilise at replacement level, where the value of TFR is approximately 2.1. For countries in Europe and North America, fertility has declined. But surprisingly, fertility did no stop at replacement level, but has declined even further. Table 3 show the TFR for some developed countries since the 1950's. The table shows TFR has declined steadily since 1980. By 1980, all the countries have fertilities at below replacement. This has continued for more than a decade, dispelling the theory that below replacement is a cyclical event.
Why has fertility dropped to below replacement levels? The common reasons given include the increasing cost of children, the greater participation of women in the workforce and higher age at marriage. However, these reasons do not explain why ferility hass dropped so low. Why do couples can afford to spend money of shoes, television, holidays and not use it to raise children. Although women are getting married later, they still have enough time to bear two or more children. If career women have no time to take care of children, why do they have time to watch television, or go shopping or play golf. Thus, the answer is not just economics. Unlike television, parents cannot switch off children when the children become a nuisance. Having a child means a lifetime of commitment. Unlike shoes where quality remains constant, the quality of children increases as they grow up. They promote their own interests and make further demands. Whether the conditions for having children becomes favourable or not depends mainly on two variables - housing and childcare facilities. If both these variables become more affordable and available, there is a chace that fertility will reverse its downward trend and maybe even increase. If present conditions continue, fertility may decline further.
Due to advances in medical science, people are living longer. By the turn of the century, men in developed countries can expect to live to the age of 75 years. For women, it's even longer. Since fertility is already very low, theis means the proportion of the elderly will become bigger, while the proportion of the working population will become smaller. This means the cost of taking care of the elderly that is being borne by the working population will increase. One way governments can adress this problem is to improve the pension fund. |
