These are the picks for the 2005 season. Bold represents the team selected to win. Games in red represent the Upset of the Week. At the bottom, The weekly and overall records for the season appear at the bottom. These picks are based purely on winners and losers with no consideration from the spread. The spread is only used to determine upsets for the Upset of the Week.
With most teams a quarter through their seasons, now is a fair time to evaluate trends and make projections from the early patterns.
The AFC East, considered the most competitive division, lost that distinction thanks to key injuries. At least the NFC North will keep the weakest division designation, thanks to all four teams having losing records.
And if the season continues like it started, then Cincinnati and Washington will meet in Super Bowl XL.
I betcha there wasn't one expert who predicted the Bengals (4-0) and the Redskins (3-0) would be sitting atop their divisions a month into the season. But there they are, ahead of the likes of Pittsburgh (AFC-N) and Philadelphia (NFC-E), two teams with championship aspirations.
At some point in the past four years, the earth must had passed through a portal into a nega-universe that turned pro sports upside-down. That would explain the New England Patriots' run and the Boston Red Sox winning their first World Series in 85 years. Next up might be Los Angeles winning the NBA Championship. The Clippers, that is.
What were the chances of the 'Skins and Bengals being flawless this deep into the season? At least it is understandable for Cincy, playing a soft early schedule. They won games they should. Cleveland, Minnesota, Chicago, and Houston are a combined 3-10.
The Bengals are continuing the momentum that began last season. Quarterback Carson Palmer had a great second half of 2004 and his progress remains on a steady path. With weapons like wide outs Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh on the receiving end of Palmer's passes and Rudy Johnson grinding out tough yards on the ground, the offense was set. The missing element was defense, which is now emerging under the guidance of head coach Marvin Lewis, the former defensive coordinator of the record-setting 2002 Baltimore Ravens defense. In time those tiger stripes will become prison bars for opponents as Cincy's D locks up offenses.
For now, the defense is getting away with stealing. They lead the league with 12 interceptions and are +13 in turnover ratio. With the offense getting so many chances to score, it's no wonder why Cincinnati is undefeated. The last time they started a season 4-0, they reached the Super Bowl back in 1988.
The pristine start for the Redskins is an equally good omen. Their last 3-0 start was 1991 and ended in a Super Bowl victory. But keeping up with that champion 'Skins team could be tough for the current squad. While the '91 Redskins blew out opponents, the '05 team has won by a total of six points.
Those stats will win championships in futbol, but not in football. The defense is there, but Washington is tied for the 27th worst scoring offense, averaging 14.3 points per game. How they won is also reason for concern. The season opening 9-7 win was thanks to a three field goal performance by kicker John Hall against the vaunted Chicago defense. That was trumped by the two TD bombs to Santana Moss in the last 3:46. Add an overtime three-point victory and you have three wins rescued from the jaws of defeat.
The chances of either team remaining unblemished are slim, as only one team accomplished the feat. But Cincinnati's good start seems more legitimate. The offense is there and the D is improving. Yes, the Redskins' defense will keep them in a lot of games, but the offense isn't productive enough. The Washington Nationals won a lot of close games before things fell apart. It will be the same story for the local football team. The Redskins are winning by the skin of their teeth, but eventually the enamel wears out.
I haven't been forward with my records so far, but I have no problem announcing a 10-4 week. Hopefully I keep improving.
New England at Atlanta - L
Patriots QB Tom Brady didn't appreciate San Diego head coach Marty Schottenheimer's evaluation of New England's current situation. Someone tell Brady to let it go. That game was last week. If he keeps looking back, he won't see the Atlanta pass rush coming as the Falcons trample the Pats.
Miami at Buffalo - L
With J.P. Losman starting for the Bills, all Buffalo has done under the guidance of the nascent passer is just lose, man. So now Kelly Holcomb gets his chance to either drive the offense or get thrown under the bus. In this case, the Dolphins keep rollin'.
Chicago at Cleveland - W
A team won't win many games if your quarterback throws as many completions as interceptions in the first half. Chi-town rookie passer Kyle Orton's introduction to the league took a turn for the worse in his last game. Times will get better, but not in Cleveland. The Browns show Orton another bad time.
Baltimore at Detroit - L
Great choice of words by Ravens head coach Brian Billick, comparing the New York Jets situation to the victims of the hurricanes Katrina and Rita, saying he should bring money to assist the injury-riddled roster. If Billick is giving away cash, then I can use some relief on my car payments. Billick and the Ravens won't give away this game, though.
New Orleans at Green Bay - W
Somehow G.B.'s Brett Favre equated being a NFL quarterback to not being hip by his daughter's standards. Imagine not being hip by Green Bay, Wisconsin standards. Man! Is Favre out of it or what? Playing football the old skool way is the only way Favre knows, and it will serve him well as he leads the Packers to their first win.
Tennessee at Houston - W
New offensive coordinator, same result. Houston's David Carr was sacked seven times last week. People gamble on Texans games, then pick the over-under on sacks. The Titans go for the over of five and wrap up the Texans.
Tampa Bay at New York Jets - L
The Jets mustered 90 yards of offense in the first 56 minutes last week. If scoring continues to be a problem, they should sign the Burger King. The fast-food icon equals instant offense, as displayed in his two commercials. Unfortunately New York can't cook up a way to beat the Buccaneers.
Seattle at St. Louis - W
Fatigue will be a factor in this game. After 62 pass attempts, Rams QB Marc Bulger had heating pads installed in his shoulder pads. He won't be able to get loose as the Seahawks put the Rams on ice.
Indianapolis at San Francisco - W
I could understand San Fran's decision to start Alex Smith if this game was going to be like an internship under the tutelage of Indy's Peyton Manning. But they'll be on opposite sidelines. Smith will learn how to take a beating like a man, and that's about all he'll learn. The Colts smoke the 49ers.
Carolina at Arizona - W
The NFL is coming down hard on the Carolina players who received steroids last year. Only center Jeff Mitchell remains with the team, but he will be subjected to 24 random test over the course of the season. If a 'Zona player can lock Mitchell in a bathroom stall during a test, it gives the Cardinals an advantage. But the Cards fail the close the door on the rest of 'Lina players. The Panthers got the key to this win.
Philadelphia at Dallas - L
Philly's Donovan McNabb will continue to play through pain, knowing the best remedy is rest. McNabb will get plenty of rest as he gets the Eagles ahead early so he can relax in the second half.
Washington at Denver - W
A phantom pass interference call helped the Redskins pull off an overtime win. Without a gift from the officials, Washington won't be able to squeak out another late-game victory. This one goes to the Broncos.
Cincinnati at Jacksonville - L
Do you believe in curses? If so, then you go against Cincy with quarterback Carson Palmer landing on the cover of Sports Illustrated. But I'm not the superstitious type. I've got the Bengals' back in the Upset of the Week.
Pittsburgh at San Diego - Monday Night - L
What I don't understand is how is it that S.D. beat the tar out of the defending Super Bowl champions while on the road, but completely choke at home against the New York Jets in the playoffs? Maybe they rose to the occasion. If so, then the Chargers should be up to take the Steelers down.
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Super Bowl XL