Randolph's Random Picks

Week 1

These are the picks for the 2005 season. Bold represents the team selected to win. Games in red represent the Upset of the Week. At the bottom, The weekly and overall records for the season appear at the bottom. These picks are based purely on winners and losers with no consideration from the spread. The spread is only used to determine upsets for the Upset of the Week.

There's a reason why they say Dallas Cowboys head coach Bill Parcells is considered a genius. When he wins the Super Bowl this year, there won't be any question.

Sounds crazy, right? Well think about it. With an exception or two (Denver, Tampa Bay), previous champs had losing records before winning it all. But also, Parcells switched to a 3-4 defense, just like the Patriots., And he signed quarterback Drew Bledsoe. When Drew gets injured two games into the season, Parcells has Drew Henson ready to take over and take the 'Boys all the way. How do I know Henson will take Dallas to the promised land? He played for the University of Michigan, just like Tom Brady.

It's another case of follow the leader. Then again, if the model franchise won two championships in a row, who's to argue? It led the Arizona to draft John Navarre in the seventh round because they hoped he could become the next Brady. Being a fan of the Maize and Blue, I saw a lot of Navarre. And despite the big numbers he put up over his college career, Navarre was no Brady as a Wolverine.

Front offices will have to wait at least two years to select Chad Henne on the second day of the draft, but that didn't keep coaches from converting their defenses to a 3-4. Pittsburgh was the only constant, running that defensive front since the days George Burns roamed the earth. Upon birth, the Houston Texans played a 3-4 because head coach Tom Capers was raised a Steelers disciple.

Some making the conversion can lay claim to their past: Parcells used it with the New York Giants, Nick Saban (Miami) and Romeo Crennel (Cleveland) worked under Patriots head coach Bill Belichick for years and are following in the footsteps as they walk their own path with their respective teams.

But other teams making the switch do so without a familiarity with the scheme. Denver signed or traded for the whole underachieving Browns D-line. And straight out of college, San Francisco head coach Mike Nolan will try his luck because the 49ers didn't stop anyone with a 4-3 alignment last year.

The switch doesn't always work. Atlanta did for a season and found out DE Patrick Kerney couldn't produce taking on double-teams. Oakland thought signing NT Ted Washington and DEs Bobby Hamilton and Warren Sapp would enable them to make a successful transition. The Raiders ranked 30th defensively last year so that experiment lasted as long as Terrell Owens' happiness.

Some of the converts will learn the hard way the right personnel matters as much as the scheme. Are the linebackers versatile enough to rush the passer and drop into coverage? Are the linemen strong enough to hold the point of attack and play two gaps? New England wasn't always a 3-4 defense, but drafting the right players and making the right moves in free agency allowed Belichick to change to his preferred scheme.

The converts might be poor defensively this season, but in time could become solid units. For now, they are following in the footsteps of the champions.

All teams have a toe at the starting line as the season is about to kick off. Let the race to the extra large Super Bowl begin!

Oakland at New England --Thursday Night - W

A new team, a new number, and a new Randy Ratio, as in the number created by Randy Moss' ex-coach Mike Tice that measured how many passes are thrown Randy's way early in the game. This new ratio will either be 2-to-1 or 3-to-1, as in two or three defenders always around Moss. The Patriots smother to Raiders.

Houston at Buffalo - L

It's the first career start for Bills quarterback J.P. Losman. Watching Losman run around trying to avoid sacks behind a shaky offensive line makes Houston QB David Carr recall his first few years in the league. Times have changed for Carr and the Texans and they escape Buffalo with a win.

New Orleans at Carolina - L

Many believe 'Lina will win it all, as long as they stay healthy. If the likes of wide out Steve Smith and running backs Stephen Davis and DeShawn Foster were healed with the help of cybernetic implants, then I'd believe those opinions. The Panthers walk off the field with a W.

Cincinnati at Cleveland - W

According to ESPN, some NCAA teams got in trouble for making scholarship offers to high school junior quarterback Jimmy Clausen. But the network failed to mention the contract offer made by the Browns and the promise to start this season. You have my word that the Bengals will paste the Browns.

Seattle at Jacksonville - W

Word is Jacksonville quarterback Byron Leftwich lost weight in the offseason. That means he's living up to his name: Byron left 'wiches off the menu and had salads instead. Byron and the Jaguars eat up the Seahawks.

New York Jets at Kansas City - L

It was CB Ray Mickens' idea that New York should sign free agent corner Ty Law. So the Jets did. And released Mickens in the process. And gave his #24 to Law. New York's front office did say that Mickens still is on the Christmas card list. This Jets win is signed, sealed, and delivered.

Denver at Miami - L

Deciding between quarterback Jay Feely and Gus Ferrotte is like deciding between the being hung or strangulation. All four can choke. Expect a fair share of excruciating losses for the Dolphins starting with the Broncos.

Tampa Bay at Minnesota - L

Another team that suddenly believes in defense like born-again individuals have found God. We'll see if the D forsakens thee Vikings, but at least they can have faith that the offense pulls out this win.

Tennessee at Pittsburgh - W

Go 15-1 as a rookie starter and lead the team to the AFC Championship. Who thinks Steeler fans will have fair expectations for QB Ben Roethlisberger? He played poorly in the playoffs and will continue to do so until he learns to adjust. Big Ben and the Steelers struggle, but survive the Titans.

Chicago at Washington - L

For insurance purposes, the Bears kept five quarterbacks on their active roster after final cuts and signed five more to their practice squad. First out the box will be rookie Kyle Orton as he leads the Bears past the Redskins for the Upset of the Week.

Green Bay at Detroit - L

Well so much for a QB controversy in the Motor City. With Jeff Garcia out at least six weeks with a broken leg, Joey Harrington can play without looking over his shoulder. Looking over the pass rush will be a bigger problem as the Lions' O-line fail to slow down the Packers.

Arizona at New York Giants - L

With every touchdown pass thrown by 'Zona's Kurt Warner, do you believe he's thinking, "So you think I'm washed up, huh?" He'll prove Giants fans wrong, or at least prove New York's secondary is shaky, as Warner leads the Cardinals past the Giants.

Dallas at San Diego - L

S.D. will play this game without Pro Bowl TE Antonio Gates. What better encouragement for QB Drew Brees to throw to his outside receivers than making him play without his safety net? The Chargers dissect the Cowboys.

St. Louis at San Francisco - L

Fans in the Bay Area want the 49ers to sign wide out Jerry Rice to a one-day contract so he can retire as a Niner. Head coach Mike Nolan thinks it's a great idea too, though he'd sign Rice for three years and have Jerry in the starting lineup. San Fran could use Rice as the Rams pummel the 49ers.

Indianapolis at Baltimore - W

An 0-4 preseason by Indy. Should that be any cause for concern? When they flip that record and score 40 on the Ravens the rest of the league will be concerned. Colts in a blowout.

Philadelphia at Atlanta - Monday Night - L

In the history of the Falcons, they never had two consecutive winning seasons. Atlanta will get off to a bad start in their quest to make team history as the Eagles shut the Falcons down like in the NFC Championship.

Weekly Record: 5-11
Overall Record: 5-11