Mike's Baseball Blog

June 4th, 2006: Nationals 8, Milwaukee 4
I said the Brewers were dead in the water last week, and I hate it when my pessimistic brain is correct. Since that 2nd straight awful loss to Pittsburgh, they've gone 0-5.

Generally, they've gotten pounded in their 8 game losing streak.

Lost 6-2 to Philadelphia,
Lost 14-3 to Pittsburgh,
Lost 12-1 to Pittsburgh,
Lost 6-1 to Pittsburgh,
Lost 4-3 to Pittsburgh,
Lost 10-4 to Washington,
Lost 4-3 to Washington,
Lost 8-4 to Washington.

The two 1-run losses were bad - Turnbow blew both of them, one run leads in the ninth, the first after a decent outing by Bush, the second by Davis, who looked like 2004 and 2005 Davis, striking out 13 and walking only 2. (Actually, that may be better than 2004 and 2005 Davis.)

It's too bad the offense went south over this stretch (21 runs in 8 games is pretty bad, but the 8 they mustered in 4 games against Pittsburgh were particularly bad). Still, they gave up 64 runs in 8 games, and it's impossible to win with that disastrous level of pitching. Although Bush and Davis pitched well, Capuano came down to earth in a 6-1 loss to Pittsburgh, and - waddayaknow - the bullpen and rest of the starters all stunk, especially Dana Eveland - who was sent down - and de la Rosa.

I'm starting to get tired of Jorge de la Rosa, by the way. His stats have been brutal for a couple years now, and he has yet to do anything worthwhile over a period longer than two games.

It's pretty bad when your favorite team's pitching and bullpen resemble the disastrous Seattle Pilots pitching staff of '69 from Ball Four. Every guy we throw in there gets hammered, just like Seattle's.

Ah, well, there's always next year, right?

May 30th, 2006: Pittsburgh 12, Milwaukee 1
Ouch. The Crew is pretty much dead in the water right now until they get their rotation and bullpen fixed.

As of this moment, they have given up ten or more runs 8 times. Last year, they committed such an act 8 times in 162 games. I think that - more than anything else - really tells you how catastrophic the pitching has been.

The starter tonight was Jorge de la Rosa. 6 runs in 3 IP. The other fellows gave up 6 runs in 6 IP. Neither will help a team win.

What's awful is that there's nothing to do. We just have to shrug and live with it. The Brewers can try to trade for more mediocre pitching, but they won't get anything worth the trade (though perhaps I might try to get rid of Lee or Jenkins closer to the deadline for some prospects).

I hate to forsake the season, but the pitching staff is really a disaster, and I'd rather the Crew let the young guys figure out how to play this year, let Sheets and Ohka heal, give Cappy and Eveland more experience, and sort out the options among Bush, Davis, and Helling to see what they've got for a push in 2007. 3 start and out performances from Sheets won't do the Crew any good this year, and despite how painful some of these performances are to watch, the best thing may be to suffer one more year, giving Yost a pass.

The most disappointing thing is, I think, the de-glorification of Mike Maddux, pitching coach. We all had the feeling that he would bring out the best in everyone, what with excellent performances from Sheets, Capuano, Ohka, Davis, Turnbow, Wise, Helling, and Bush (at least this Spring) under his watch. Now, though, it seems that his magic is gone. The Davis magic is completely gone, and Sheets' and Ohka's injuries downplay two of his success stories. Wise is still okay, and so is Turnbow, but with everyone else struggling, it's hard to believe in his magic very much.

There was a stat on baseballprospectus.com today, listing the 5 worst rotations. The Brewers were listed #5 by SNLVR, but second worst in VORP (Value over replacement players).

Now, what's good is that the offense is excellent and that the pitching staff (except for Cappy) has absolutely NOWHERE to go but up over the last few weeks.

May 29th, 2006: Pittsburgh 5, Milwaukee 2, Top of 3rd
After a very nice road trip to Philly, where the Brewers broke Philly's hearts twice (making it five in a row), I actually felt bad enough for Philadelphia so that I didn't mind when the Brewers lost the game on Sunday.

Then, watching via a delayed Gamecast tonight, the Brewers took a 2-0 lead on the Pirates in the top of the first.

Then, I watched in horror as Doug Davis walked the very first player on the Pirates (the incredibly mediocre Jose Batista) on four straight pitches. Add in another walk with the bases loaded, two bunt singles, an infield single plus an error, and the Pirates notched 5 unbelievably undeserved runs.

Update: Pittsburgh 14, Milwaukee 3
Pee-yew. The Brewers are exhibiting their biggest problems in droves right now. First, 3/5 of the starting rotation is a disaster. With Tomo Ohka and Ben Sheets (and Rick Helling) out with injuries, they are forced to rely on five guys:

Chris Capuano: 75.0 IP, 64/16 K/BB, 2.88 ERA, 5-3 record. Grade: A+. Giving as much as he can - beyond expectations, actually - to help the club.

Dave Bush: 69.1 IP, 59/17 K/BB ratio, 5.19 ERA, 3-5 record. Grade: D. I expected league average. He's about 20-30 % worse.

Doug Davis: 66.0 IP, 42/44 K/BB ratio, 5.59 ERA, 3-3 record. Grade: F. Aside from injuries, Doug's the biggest problem in the rotation. He has more walks than strikeouts, and he hasn't improved at all in 11 starts. With two solid guys out and one guy floundering, the Crew needs him in top shape. He hasn't been.

Dana Eveland: 20.1 IP, 21/10 K/BB ratio, 7.97 ERA, 0-2 record. Grade: D-. Almost pitches well enough to keep the Brewers in the game, but the strikeout rate (over 1 per inning) is solid, so there's at least some hope here.

Ben Hendrickson: 12.0 IP, 8/9 K/BB ratio, 12.00 ERA, 0-2 record. Grade: F. Just a complete disaster.

When the absolutely terrible bullpen is added behind them, the Brewers are starting to look like a mess. The pitching staff has gone from "bad" to "complete shambles" right now. Aside from Capuano, the Brewers have Matt Wise and his 2.95 ERA and Turnbow's 3.68 ERA, but Turnbow had a sparkling 1.74 ERA last year. Wise has been fine, but these are the only two bright spots so far in an absolutely terrible bullpen.

Brewers' bullpen ERA (drum roll please...........)

5.07.

That's not the worst of it, though. They actually allow 5.93 runs per 9 IP, and when the starter gets knocked out in the 3rd inning, that's an average of 4 more runs going to the opponent's side of the ledger.

There are WAY too many problems with the pitching staff right now, and so I have completely tempered my expectations. I see them going to about 75 wins, all on the strength of Capuano and a decent offense. Joe Sheehan predicted that the Brewers would give up a lot of runs, but I think that the results of the pitching staff have been far worse than he expected, due to injuries and unexpected, prolonged incompetence out of Bush, Davis, and pretty much the entire bullpen.

May 23rd, 2006: Cincinnati 7, Milwaukee 3
The Brewers were smoked again tonight, outhit 12 to 7. Fielder provided all the runs, but the Reds were awesome. I knew Eveland would lose it, but it took longer than usual. The Brewers also outperformed the Reds with bases loaded, getting an out with 2 outs and then holding them to a sac fly with 1 out later on. The Brewers scored 3 with a 2 out double by Fielder.

Other than that...nada. Yost was ejected in the first, and the Brewers warm up for my birthday with a 1-4 record in their last 5. Back to .500. Record vs. the Reds: 1-6. (P.S. the Reds really aren't this good...)

Yankees 7, Red Sox 5
In other news, today Colin Cowherd went apeshit about how A-Rod doesn't knock in key runs, and that Jeter does. Their stats say differently. Basically, the stats show that A-Rod outperforms Jeter in Close & Late games from the 7th inning on. But don't tell Cowherd. He says, "I know the stats, but you have to watch the games."

That's what people with no evidence always say. Well, tonight, with Boston down 4-1, A-Rod hit a 3-run jack in the 7th. It essentially ended the game for the Yanks. In fact, in the next inning, the Yanks gave up 3 runs. Now, that 3-run jack by A-Rod looks pretty fucking important, no? In fact, barring that three run homer, the Yanks lose. And he hit it with 2 outs, no less.

That's why I don't like all this "clutch" talk. It means NOTHING. That 3-run dinger BECAME a clutch situation. The Yanks didn't manage 2 base runners again after that, but Cowherd thinks A-Rod's a choker. Whatever, you loser.

May 22nd, 2006: Cincinnati 7, Milwaukee 1, Bottom of 5th
The Brewers are just a bizarre team this year. From top to bottom they�re solid, they are outhitting people by a .087 OPS (about the difference between Geoff Jenkins and J.J. Hardy), and yet they've been outscored.

Another thing that's bizarre is that they've been behind in a whole ton of games this year. Just in the last month:

Down 5-0 in the first inning to the Reds (Monday 5/22)
Down 3-1 in the fourth inning to the Twins (Sunday 5/21)
Down 6-0 in the first inning to the Twins (Saturday 5/20)
Down 1-0 in the second inning to the Twins (Friday 5/19)
Down 3-0 in the first inning to the Phillies (Thursday 5/18)
Down 4-1 in the fifth inning to the Phillies (Wednesday 5/17)
Not behind against the Phillies (Tuesday 5/16)
Down 2-0 in the first inning to the Mets (Sunday 5/14)
Down 3-0 in the third inning to the Mets (Saturday 5/13)
Down 2-0 in the first inning to the Mets (Friday 5/12)
Down 5-0 in the first inning to the Padres (Thurs. 5/11)
Down 3-0 in the fourth inning to the Padres (Wed. 5/10)
Not behind against the Padres (Tues. 5/9)
Down 5-1 in the third inning to the Dodgers (Sun. 5/7)
Not behind until very end against Dodgers (Sat. 5/6)
Down 3-0 in the fourth inning to the Dodgers (Fri. 5/5)
Not behind against the Giants (Thurs. 5/4)
Down 2-0 in the second inning to the Giants (5/3)
Down 5-0 in the second inning to the Astros (5/2)
Not behind against the Astros (5/1)

That-s a ridiculous string there. Out of 20 games, they were behind early in 15. And yet, they'll have gone 8-11. I've highlighted the 8 games that are, in my words, Royals-esque. Falling behind by 2 or more in the first (or three or more in the second) is a terrible way to play baseball, and it sucks that I can only watch them for about half an inning (or less, some days) because they are almost out of the game after one measly inning. Down 5-0 in the first is a complete and utter disaster.

I've done some more digging, and I've discovered that the Brewers, on the average, are awful starters. Check it out:

Brewer Runs Oppt. Runs

Inn. 1-3 56 97

Inn. 4-6 79 76

Inn. 7-9 86 70

Inn. 10+ 3 0

Of course, what this all means is that the Brewers tend to get clobbered out of the gates, and sometimes make a run to cut into that lead late. I like that "0" in the "10th inning and later" category, though.

It's a miracle!
Justin Lehr pitched himself into a bases loaded situation with one out and only gave up a sacrifice fly!

Man, I hate the Reds
I really hate these guys. They take a ton of walks, they blast three-run homers like the Bush Administration blasts civil rights, then they score 100 runs. In 5 games, they've broken the 10-run barrier three times, for a total of 38 runs (only 3 more in two other games). Meanwhile the Brewers are making Bronson Arroyo look like a Cy Young winner. A game like this really demoralizes me.

May 21st, 2006: Minnesota 3, Milwaukee 1, Top of 6th inning
The Brewers are well on their way to being swept at home by one of the worst teams in the majors...without having faced Johan Santana. Two rookie pitchers and a very mediocre one will go 3-0 against the Crew. Disgusting.

The story of this game can be found (again) in the bases loaded situation. The Brewers, in the first inning, managed the bases loaded and nobody out. Whereas the Twins parlayed three of these situations into 8 runs in the two earlier games, the Brewers turned into 1 paltry run.

The Twins got their runs thanks to an error (in the 3rd) and another Tony Batista home run in the 4th. It's almost as if the Brewers are trying to lose in the most painful ways possible. Tony Batista is a washed up easy out and he's drubbed the Brewers for 2 home runs and 6 RBI.

To add one further piece of bad news...Damian Miller has come out of the game after striking out in the 4th. If he's out for any length of time, our regular catcher goes from a solid offensive player to the execrable Chad Moeller.

Update: Milwaukee 5, Minnesota 3
Well, phooey on me for being Mr. Pessimist. A nice 4-run 7th not only provided the final margin but gave Capuano his 5th win of the season. I appreciate the effort, but I wish they didn't have to always come from behind to win. Can't they get a 3-run lead early and hold it all game?

The Twins got their runs thanks to an error (in the 3rd) and another Tony Batista home run in the 4th. It's almost as if the Brewers are trying to lose in the most painful ways possible. Tony Batista is a washed up easy out, and the Brewers have already allowed more unearned runs than any other team.

May 20th, 2006: Minnesota 6, Milwaukee 0, middle of 1st inning
The sad joke that is Ben Hendrickson continues. It's the first inning, one of the worst offenses in the majors is up to bat, and Hendrickson has given up 4 singles, a double, and a walk (plus a Carlos Lee error, who probably tried to make a miracle play to help out his shitty pitcher). It's getting to the point where I'm actually ecstatic if he gets the leadoff batter out.

The first inning has been pretty miserable for Hendrickson. I mean, the Brewers' chances of winning have gone from over 50% to under 5% in about 15 minutes. Hendrickson is a pile of shit and should no longer be on the team. Part of me wants Yost to keep him in there for 5 or 6 innings, let him take his lumps for sucking against a sucky team, and kiss him good-bye forever.

I mean, from what I can tell, it's not even close. His balls are way off the plate, and his strikes are right down the middle. He's a head case and should be dumped. I never want to see him again. He reminds of the days of Jimmy Haynes or Wes Obermueller. Guys that would pull off a miracle to get through 5 innings and only give up 3 or 4 runs.

Forget the fact that Hendrickson hasn't recorded an out. Yost is going to feel obligated to try to win this stupid game, and he's going to have to pull him now, exhaust the bullpen, who will only - if we're lucky - keep the Twins to 7 or 8 tonight. The offense is good, but 7 or 8 runs is a lot to hope for.

Yup. Yost is going with De La Rosa now. Hendrickson has never done anything, wasn't really performing in the minors anyway, and now he's cost the Brewers three games.

Game 1: 5 IP, 3 Runs. One of those miracles I was talking about.
Game 2: 2.1 IP, 7 runs. This is Jimmy Haynes/Wes Obermueller/Matt Kinney type stuff.
Game 3: 0 IP, 6 runs. The Brewers should never subject their fans to this kind of crap.

It's amazing how quickly a solid staff can go to complete horse shit. The rotation, before the season, looked like a strength: Sheets, Capuano, Davis, Bush, and Ohka, with a rejuvenated Rick Helling in the wings. No one there was worse than league-average, and the top three had been far above average, Ohka slightly above. Now Sheets is injured, Davis has forgotten where the strike zone is, and Ohka is out for over a month. Bush and Capuano have been as good as advertised (that is, okay and excellent, respectively).

Davis has slid to a bit worse than average, and Sheets and Ohka have been replaced with Ben Hendrickson, who is an automatic loss, and Dana Eveland, who looks good aside from really really bad innings (two 3-run innings to the Mets and a 4-run first to the Phillies).

With Hendrickson pitching this badly, I'm beginning to worry that the Brewers are going to do something silly. They're expected to win, and they can't have a worthless pitcher starting games for them.

Update: Minnesota 11, Brewers 4, Bottom of 4th
This was what I figured would happen. The Brewers gave a tiny bit of hope in the bottom of the first with a 2-run home run, then did nothing for two more innings against the very hittable Scott Baker, who has already struck out 6 of his 9 outs.

Anyway, Yost had De La Rosa hit for himself, which was stupid, because the Brewers were down 4, and De La Rosa hasn't gone much more than 20 pitches this season (he was at about 50). I would have thanked my lucky stars and put in someone else. Sure enough, top of the 4th and he tires out. Lehr comes in, walks the bases loaded...and gives up a triple. The Twins have had the bases loaded three times in this series and they've gotten one HBP, a home run, and now a triple. That's 8 RBIs, and the Crew are so far down you'll need to dig 'em out with a backhoe.

When I looked at the pitching matchups for this weekend, I grumbled, because Davis went against the Twins best young pitcher in Francisco Liriano. Sure enough, the Brewers scored one measly run. Tonight I didn't like because of Ben "no out" Hendrickson. Tomorrow it looks better, I guess, as Capuano goes up against rookie Boof Bonser.

The Twins are probably feeling pretty good about themselves, but they haven't really done much against good pitchers. Of the 18 runs (good grief!) they've amassed so far, only two came when a pitcher of established worth was on the mound (Doug Davis, who went into the 8th and was probably a little tired). The other 16 have come against:

2nd year man Jose Capellan and his 4.76 ERA (on mound for 5 of them, allowing 2 of Davis's to get in),
2nd year crap-hole Ben Hendrickson and his 11.25 ERA (6 of them),
3rd year man Jorge De La Rosa and his 6.11 ERA (2 of them - only because he was tiring, though), and super inconsistent Justin Lehr and his 7.53 ERA (for 3 more).

When you realize that one of Davis's runs was knocked in by a flukey hit by the pitcher, the Twins' offensive prowess really doesn't look so hot. The Brewer pen has been killing them all year, and starting Ben Hendrickson doesn't help. Unfortunately, games like this have been typical of the Brewers all season. When the starter falters (and he's faltered A LOT), they've had to go with incredibly mediocre bullpen help, and it's killed them.

The Crew have scored 4 runs in 4 innings, a very nice ratio. Any sort of start or bullpen and they'd be right in the middle of this game at the very worst.

May 19th, 2006: Minnesota 7, Milwaukee 1
The anemic Twins came in and won in a pretty flukey way. Their first run was thanks to their pitcher getting a hit with two outs. The second run was a solo shot - no beef there. The third run was when Cappellan hit Lew Ford with a pitch when the count was 2-2. That sucked, but was what worse was when he gave up a grand slam to Tony Batista, who really has no business being employed in Major League Baseball, except as a pinch-hitter.

The Brewers had a chance to tie or take the lead with runners on 2nd and 3rd and one out in the 7th. Instead, a short fly out to center (thanks Bill Hall) and a strikeout (thanks Damian Miller) resulted in nothing. Then, very next inning, the Twins get two chances with the bases loaded, get plunked, and then get a dinger.

Brewers pitchers continue to get absolutely destroyed with the bases juiced. Here's a couple stats for you. The Brewers are still hitting like my dead grandma Ethel (God rest her soul) with the bases loaded (.469 OPS), but the opponents are hitting like Albert Pujols (1.060 BEFORE tonight).

May 18th, 2006: Anaheim vs. Toronto
I have just seen the dumbest play ever. With a tie game in the bottom of the 8th, a runner on third base and one out, Mike Scioscia called for his rookie catcher, who has gone 3 for 3 with a home run tonight, to do a suicide squeeze. It failed in major fashion as the rookie popped out to the pitcher, who threw to first for a quick double-play. Out of the inning.

Maybe Anaheim will win anyway, but you've gotta be pissed if you're an Angel fan right now. That's the worst possible situation for a suicide squeeze: Tie Game, Rookie Catcher up with a hot bat. Big risk for little payoff. Scioscia had the odds with him. A long fly, a hit, an error, a wild pitch, most ground balls, and a passed ball would have given him the lead. Why put it all on a rookie's bat?

Minor League Brewers
The Brewers have a lot of upper-level talent that's ready to come up. Corey Hart was pulled up yesterday. He was hitting .320/.386/.560. I'd love to see him take over at third.

Other AAA All Stars include Nelson Cruz, who's hitting .283/.365/.543 and Dave Krynzel, who's smoking the ball to a .311/.388/.554 clip. Some catcher named Mike Rivera is kicking butt, too, .374/.438/.616. That kind of production is too much to hope for, but doesn't a flyer on him sound better than Chad Moeller?

Regrettably, the Brewers have exhausted their pitching options. Hendrickson (2.70 ERA) and Eveland (0.75 ERA, 33/7 K/BB ratio) are up, and Zach Jackson, the next best thing (2.70 ERA) is walking too many and striking out too few. If the Brewers can get Ohka and Sheets back and healthy, I can start getting excited again.

May 18th, 2006: Mike on the AL West
Thought I'd go through the divisions, one per day. Start with the AL West today.

Oakland: Bullish
The only competition in this division is really the Angels, and they are struggling. Though I think Frank Thomas is done, Chavez and Swisher are excellent, the rotation is pretty good (Zito, Haren, and Harden, when he's healthy), and they've got more upside on offense, with Bobby Crosby poised to improve from a .671 OPS and Jay Payton from a .641. Kotsay, Ellis, and Kendall all get on base enough to help out Also, Jeremy Brown is hitting .338 as a 25 year old down at Sacramento. I'm pulling for him to keep it up and get to the bigs.

Texas, Seattle: Push
The Rangers look like a .500 team and Seattle looks like a 70 win club, especially as King Felix struggles a bit in his sophomore campaign.

LA Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles of Anaheim: Bearish
Beyond Vlad Guerrero, the core of this team is old (Salmon) or ineffective (Garrett Anderson, Erstad, Molina, Cabrera), and the new guys are mediocre. Quinlan (.668 OPS), Kotchman (.436 OPS), and Kendrick (.322 OPS!) have been busts, and Figgins has slipped to a .322 OBP. I think this team has had it.

Red Sox 5, Yankees 3, Top of 9th
Kevin Youkilis did the just-about-impossible, and knocked in a run off of Mariano Rivera. The more I think about Rivera, the more I realize that he's un-be-fucking-lievable. There is no reliever since Sutter or Gossage who has put up these kind of numbers on a consistent basis. He rocks, and he should be in the Hall of Fame some day.

Will wonders never cease? With 2 outs, and Jeter on first, Giambi swung at the first pitch and ended the game.

Anywho...other than Mariano, the Yankees are finally cashing in their chips on all these 30+ players. Sheffield is out with some sort of injury, and Matsui just broke his wrist tonight. Joe Torre's going to have to start earning his money for the first time in YEARS. Normally, he just plugs in his lineup (CF - Damon, SS - Jeter, then any combo of DH/1B-Giambi, RF-Sheffield, 3B-A-Rod, LF-Matsui, then C-Posada, 2B-Cano, and whatever chump he feels like plugging in at first, or Old Yankee Bernie Williams if he's feeling sentimental).

Now he's going to have to make some decisions. He's still got Damon, Jeter, A-Rod, Giambi, Posada, and Cano, but these guys aren't as great as they used to be (except maybe Jeter and Giambi), and Cano's incredibly streaky. With Sheff and Matsui out, Torre has to get two BIG run-producers in there, or this team may go in the tank. They're still good, just not Crap-Your-Pants-If-You're-the-Opposing-Pitcher good.

Torre, when forced, tends to over-manage. Take tonight, for example. Chacon was effective, but all over the place. He had given up 5 hits and 5 walks in 4.2 innings. Torre started playing Three-Card-Monty with his relievers:

Scott Proctor - 1/3 of an inning
Mike Myers - 1/3 of an inning
Tanyon Sturtze - walks a batter
Ron Villone - 1 inning
Kyle Farnsworth - 1 2/3 innings
Mo Rivera - 1 inning

Torre was trying to maintain a 3-1 lead in innings 5, 6 and 7. In the fifth, Chacon came out with the bases loaded and 2 out. He walked Wily Mo Pena and was up to 104 pitches, so I can understand why Joe yanked him. Wily Mo only walks if you force feed him. Proctor cleaned up the mess.

In the 6th inning, Proctor gave up three straight singles. I always kind of associate that with bad luck. Well, out he comes. Torre decides to start switching off, forcing the platoon advantage. Myers comes in for Ortiz (lefty on lefty) and gets him out. Soyanara Mr. Myers.

Sturtze comes in to get Ramirez (righty on righty). Unfortunately, he walks him. Bases loaded. Enjoy the showers, Mr. Sturtze.

Next pitcher is Ron Villone, another lefty, to face Trot Nixon, a lefty. Pop out. Next batter if Mike Lowell, a righty. No change for Torre, and Lowell grounds out. Torre has kept the lead at 3 to 2 with all these pitchers.

In the 7th, though, Villone, after a Wily Mo strikeout, gives up a Mirabelli single (righty) and an Alex Gonzalez ground rule double. Ouch. The two worst hitters on the Red Sox start a one-out rally. Whattayagonnado? I know, bring in your only remaining non-Rivera reliever, Kyle Farnsworth.

He comes in and gets Youkilis to line out to second. Two outs. Ah. Threat's just about over, right? Uh uh. Loretta hits an infield single to shortstop and somehow two runs score. That looks a bit funny to me. I think Jeter did something bad here, but the result is a 3 to 2 lead turning into a 4-3 deficit. On an infield single.

Normally, I don't dig all these shenanigans, but Torre did a good job. I guess I'd have gone with Farnsworth over Sturtze against Ramirez in the 6th, but they didn't give up a run there anyway. Villone got rocked by two terrible hitters. Farnsworth pitched great - if you're a pitcher, you generally count every hit he had against him as an out. In fact, after giving up the lead, he pitched a fantastic 8th. Then Rivera gives up a run in the 9th, and at that point, if you're Torre, you just shake your head and roll your eyes. If Mo gives up a run, really, what chance did you have?

Padres 8, Brewers 0, Middle of 4th
How do the Brewers come back from a shutout at the hands of Chan Ho Park? How about getting thrashed by 8 in 3 innings against the Padres? I knew the great Ben Hendrickson experiment would come crashng down again, and it certainly has already. No Ohka, no Sheets, a ton of bad luck and a mediocre bullpen. A 1-5 road trip. Yech.

Here's what sucks. They've been playing at a very high level. They should be about 22-12. Now, they're performance is going to tail off, and they're going to keep on losing. With Ben Sheets pretty much out this year, no Ohka, a sub-par Davis, a slow- or non-developing Hardy and Weeks, and a mediocre bullpen, I see the Crew at a disappointing record this year. I think they'll end up about 76-86. In other words, back to irrelevance.

Too bad. It coulda been nice. I'll check back on the team in a while, but the whole thing is too depressing to keep updating.

Padres 3, Brewers 0, Middle of 6th
Here's the perfect summary to how the Brewers are outperforming the opponent but keep on losing.

In Tuesday's game, Davis retired 13 batters in a row. He walks a guy with two outs in the 6th inning, gives up a single, then a home run. Tie Game.

Tonight, the Brewers do the same thing. Down by 3, two outs. They make a mini-rally: hit by pitch and a single. Brady Clark, who's just as likely to hit a home run as Khalil Greene, is up, gets ahead 3-1 at one point. Ground out. No tie game. Two identical situations, the Brewers give up the big hit, then can't get the big hit. (Did I mention that this is against Chan Home Run Park?) Right now they've out hit the Pads 7 to 6 (having given up only a double by Josh Bard, who couldn't catch Wakefield's knuckler so he was traded back to San Diego for Doug Mirabelli), but are losing by 3.

How has this happened? When Capuano gave up 4 of those hits, they were in one inning. The Brewers haven't managed to get more than two hits in an inning yet.

Here's another thing. J.J. Hardy comes up to pinch hit for some reason (why not Gross? He can actually start a rally this year...), gets ahead 3-0, then strikes out. Way to start the stupid inning.

This team has me so fucking frustrated. They came back after blowing the lead yesterday, then can't do shit today against Chan Ho fucking Park. I don't mind so much when they get slapped around and lose. It's when they're better than the opponents and they still lose that gets me. I mean, we've had countless teams that suck and lose. Why do we have to have a good team that loses? The one good team we have should win.

Diff in Exp Runs for 2006: from -19.22 to -21.85
Diff in Exp Runs Allowed for 2006: from +21.31 to +20.95
Expected record: 22-12
Real record: 17-17
Quick Hit: On average, they again get worse, going from 40.52 runs behind expectation to 42.80 runs behind. This is starting to get crazy. If this type of inefficiency keeps up, they'll be behind by almost 200 runs by the end of the season.

The Lucky and the Unlucky
The Brewers are obviously the unluckiest team in the Majors right now, as their batting and pitching stats say they should have a ratio of about 182 Runs Scored to 136 runs allowed, which would amount to a 21-12 record. At the moment, they are at 163 Runs Scored and 157 Runs Allowed, meaning they are at a massive -40 runs differential. Here's how the National League shapes up (Note: the sharp ones among you will notice that the Brewers' total is different from the one I post daily. This is because I am using the Basic Runs Created Formula below to save myself hours and hours of stat searching):

Team Diff. in Runs Scored Diff. in Runs Allowed Total Difference

Arizona Diamondbacks +2.56 -17.81 +20.37

Pittsburgh Pirates +0.40 -18.93 +19.33

St. Louis Cardinals +4.50 -12.17 +16.67

Cincinnati Reds +3.57 -12.75 +16.32

Philadelphia Phillies -0.72 -16.85 +16.13

LA Dodgers +6.11 -7.60 +13.71

Atlanta Braves +10.98 -2.22 +13.20

San Diego Padres +11.63 +0.67 +10.96

Houston Astros -5.38 -6.97 +1.59

San Francisco Giants -1.30 +6.64 -7.94

Chicago Cubs -2.98 +8.37 -11.35

New York Mets -7.03 +8.02 -15.05

Colorado Rockies -12.53 +2.56 -15.09

Florida Marlins +0.11 +20.62 -20.51

Washington Nationals -9.81 +11.44 -21.25

Milwaukee Brewers -14.54 +22.59 -37.09

Considering that 10 runs roughly equals a victory, the Brewers are 4 wins short of where they should be based on their batting and pitching stats. No one else is really close. Most teams hang around the average in one of the two spots (at least), though the Nationals and Mets are doing half-imitations of the Brewers so far.

What this table means is that the teams at the top are getting lucky and can be expected to fall a bit. The teams at the bottom should (I can't stress this should enough - I've been waiting for the Brewers to improve for a couple weeks) be expected to improve. That's good news for the Mets especially, as they need to fend off tough competition in the NL East. The Astros are performing as well as they should.

Really, though the only teams that should make any movement at all are the Brewers (up), Nationals (up), Marlins (up), and Diamondbacks (down). Being within a game and a half of where you "should" be is pretty close.

Brewers 3, Padres 1, top of 5th
4th inning, one out. Bases loaded. J.J. Hardy's up. With a chance to punch me and my shit-talkin' self in the teeth, he..............grounds into a double-play. End of inning. Re-start dogfight.

I hate it when I'm right.

Really, I'm not expecting Cal Ripken numbers out of J.J., or Rogers Hornsby numbers out of Rickie. What I want is this:

Rickie: .280 BA, .360 OBP, .480 SLG
J.J.: .270 BA, .340 OBP, .440 SLG

Unfortunately, these guys are at:

Rickie: .272 BA, .356 OBP, .350 SLG
J.J.: .259 BA, .312 OBP, .422 SLG

Weeks can't hit for enough power and J.J. doesn't get on base enough. Of course, the one fellow meeting expectations, Fielder (.333 BA, .394 OBP, .525 SLG) has to be the one to get hurt.

Another problem with the Brewers is that the two solid guys in the lineup aren't really THAT awesome. They're consistently mighty fine, is about the best you can say about them. Jenkins is either hurt and awesome or healthy and pretty good. Lee is either red hot, or a rich man's Dave Kingman. If his average isn't around .300, he ends up with a mediocre OBP of .330 or so.

Happily, today's he's hot, as he somehow managed to put home run #15 out of San Diego's Petco Park - no small feat, my friends.

Brewers 4, Padres 4, top of 8th
The Brewers...well, they are pissing me off. They build up a three-run lead despite blowing a bases loaded chance with 1 out. Davis walks Piazza with 2 outs, gives up a Vinny Castilla (hate that guy!) single, and then gives up a home run to hithertofore incompetent weakling Khalil Greene. Tie fucking game. The one time the Padres get base runners .....Gone. Home fucking run. God. The Brewers build up a 3 run lead thanks to two SOLO home runs, then dumb ass Davis gives up a 3 run blast.

Nice.

These guys are like the Minnesota Vikings of baseball. If they don't win tonight, I'm giving up on them until they are 10 games over .500. They should be beating the tar out of everyone, and instead they're sucking and getting hurt. How much fun is that?

Of course, despite my frustration, I'm pleased Davis went 7. He really pitched well. It was just (somewhat) bad luck that the one home run he gave up had three guys on base (while the two home runs HIS team managed had 0 guys on for each).

Really, though, the Brewers blew it tonight. Whatever happens, they should have had a two or three run lead going into the 7th or 8th, and now they're locked in a tie with a more inferior bullpen.

I've got the perfect analogy for the Crew right now. They're like the Democratic party. They are completely the better team than their opponents right now, but they still only win half the time.

Brewers 5, Padres 4, 10 Innings
Well, they pulled it off, thanks to the 'pen's ability to string together three shutout innings.

Diff in Exp Runs for 2006: from -18.21 to -19.22
Diff in Exp Runs Allowed for 2006: from +19.05 to +21.31
Expected record: 21-12
Real record: 17-16
Quick Hit: Despite completely outclassing San Diego, the Brewers had to hang on for a one run, extra inning victory. They outhit San Diego 10 to 5, out extra-base hit them 6 to 2, and out base-runnered them 14 to 9. If this imbalance ever evens out, they'll start clocking teams 8 to 3 or 4 on a regular basis.

State of the Brewers Address
I hate to make this kind of statement after only a month and a week, but this season ain't gonna do it. We've got a number of big problems that are going to kill us this season, and it may see Yost out the door, should things get unbelievably bad (which would suck). Here's Mike's List of Worries:

#1 - Ben Sheets - the main man's shoulder is on the fritz, and it's going to kill us. Take away 15, 20 Cy Young starts, and the Brewers are hosed.

#2 - Tomo Ohka - out for the year. This forces the Brewers, after the Sheets injury, into Ben Hendrickson and Dana Eveland. Never heard of 'em? How about I recall Kyle Peterson and Bill Wegman. Or, how about Steve Woodard and Ruben Quevedo. These two - though young - will bring 2/5 of the rotation down to the level of the late '90's Brewers.

#3 - Doug Davis - ...speaking of which...Doug has become a Left handed version of Jamey Wright, ca. 2000. More walks than strikeouts, and is lucky to make it through 6 innings. Maybe he'll come around, but he probably won't.

#4 - Bullpen - the 'pen is incredibly shaky. Wise has been okay, and Turnbow has been very very good, but the rest of this group is incredibly up and down. Name a situation in the 7th inning and earlier, and I don't know who I want there. Lefties up in the 7th, we have a 1 run lead? Put in De La Rosa and his 10+ ERA? No. Up by two in the 7th? Put in Lehr and his 7+ ERA? No. Tie game in the 7th, put in Capellan and his 4.76 ERA? Yech. The worst part is that this is the best the Crew have. Wise can pitch two innings once in a while, but not every day. With only Capuano and (maybe) Bush able to go 7, 8 with some semblance of regularity, the 'pen is going to kill us this year.

Quick Bullpen Stat: The 'pen has allowed runs (11 of 'em) in 6 of the last 7 games.

#5 - These Guys Are Young - there really is no guarantee that Hardy, Weeks, and Fielder will be as good as people think. Fielder seems the best bet to me, as I've watched his stats throughout the minors, and he's always done well. But as for Weeks and Hardy...I still see them as a crapshoot. Hardy's defense is fine, but I don't know if he'll hit consistently. Weeks...I just don't know about Weeks. Some days he looks like a world beater, but then he falls back in line as a no-power, rely on HBPs and Walks second basemen with error problems.

And now Fielder pulled his groin. *sigh* What the fuck else can go wrong...

Weekend of Friday, May 5th to Sunday May 7th, Dodgers 3, Brewers 0
Man, I'm really starting to hate the Dodgers. They're run by a bunch of chumps, and lately they've been sweeping the Brewers. Last year they were red-hot, and this year they got lucky...until game 3.

Now the Brewers are back down to .500 and can't win on the road. They are a far cry from where they should be, and the bullpen has been a dramatic disappointment. I'm beginning to think .500 is as good as it will be this year, especially after the injury to Ohka.

After Game 1 (a 4-3 loss):
Diff in Exp Runs for 2006: from -13.75 to -15.75
Diff in Exp Runs Allowed for 2006: from +20.83 to +18.36
Expected record: 20-10
Real record: 16-14
Quick Hit: Each team should have scored more, but the Brewers took the bigger hit.

After Game 2 (a 5-4 loss):
Diff in Exp Runs for 2006: from -15.75 to -18.42
Diff in Exp Runs Allowed for 2006: from +18.36 to +17.65
Expected Record: 20-11
Actual Record: 16-15

After Game 3 (a 10-2 loss):
Diff in Exp Runs for 2006: from -18.42 to -18.21
Diff in Exp Runs Allowed for 2006: from +17.65 to +19.05
Expected Record: 20-12
Actual Record: 16-16
Quick Hit: This balance isn't getting any better. Rather, both the offense and defense got less efficient over the weekend. The offense lost about 5 runs, and the defense gained 1 run, but stayed pitiable.

Jeff Francoeur
Jeff Francoeur of the Braves had one of the best first two months a player could have in the majors. After 180 At bats, he was batting .339 with a .644 SLG, with 12 home runs. He looked to be a huge lift for the Braves and a key cog in their future.

That was last year. This year, in 111 At bats, he is batting .209 with a .345 SLG and 4 HRs. His walk to strikeout ratio is 0 to 22. Not one walk. His OBP is a sub-Cristian Guzman .221. He's a complete disaster, and yet Bobby Cox won't take him out of the lineup. He has started and played every game this season.

I think the kid got a bit lucky last year (he was promoted from AA, too) and rode that hot streak to a job he hasn't really deserved. He's been thriving on pure talent, and that talent isn't saving him any more...not against MLB pitching. The Braves need to drop him to AAA - he's killing them right now.

Thursday, May 4th, 2006: Milwaukee 5, San Francisco 0, Bottom of 6th
Doug Davis is still struggling a bit (100+ pitches through 6 innings, with 3 BBs and 3 Ks), but I'll take it. Fortunately, the Giants are a merciful outfit.

The Brewers have also gotten all 5 of their RBIs knocked in with 2 outs, which is awesome for them, but brutal for the Giants. Serves 'em right. They got off easy last night.

The Brewers took a three run lead in the first, and Davis has been getting out of jams pretty much every inning. Mike Matheny was kind enough to squash a Giants rally in the third inning. Mike Matheny makes a whopping $3.35 million for performing such feats. Last seaon, his stats were .242/.295/.406, which was his best performance ever.

I looked up on Baseball Prospectus where he lines up. Here are the five guys (non-pitchers, 200 at bat minimum) above and below him in the chart and how much they're making:

Player VORP Salary

Adrian Beltre 6.3 $11.4 Million

Ryan Doumit 6.1 $333,000 (Lg Minimum)

Damian Jackson 6.1 $700,000

Jose Castillo 5.8 $348,000 (Lg Minimum)

Scott Podsednik 5.8 $700,000

Mike Matheny 5.7 $3.35 Million

Corey Koskie 5.6 $3.5 Million

Tino Martinez 5.3 $2.75 Million

Jose Cruz Jr. 5.3 $4 Million

Abraham Nunez 5.0 $625,000

Juan Rivera 4.8 $390,000

There are very few folks making what they should in here, which is roughly around league minimum. We should probably drop Doumit, Castillo, and Rivera from consideration, because they haven't reached arbitration yet and their salaries are pretty much capped.

Beltre was a big free agent signing. Everyone knew he'd fall apart again after 2004, but the Mariners were the only team that thought 2004 was the rule and not the very obvious exception, and they're paying for that mistake. Koskie and Cruz both had off years and the Yankees overpaid to get Tino (out of some sense of loyalty or desperation).

But this was Matheny's best year ever with the bat. The fellows whose tax bracket he should be sharing are guys like Podsednik and Nunez - below average offensive players (though I should add the Podsednik will be making $2.1 Million this year). Thanks to a sketchy and subjective defensive rep, though, Matheny gets millions while guys like Chad Moeller (who's the same player) make only $700,000.

Here's my top 5 overpaid players in the game:

Adrian Beltre, 3B, Seattle: $12.9 Million, .776 Career OPS
Cristian Guzman, SS, Washington: $4.2 Million, .574 OPS last year
David Bell, 3B, Philadelphia: $4.7 Million, .713 Career OPS
Darrin Erstad, CF, LA Angels: $8.75 Million, 6 year OPS of under .700
Edgardo Alfonzo, PH, LA Angels: $8 Million, 3 year OPS well under .800

There may be some others, but these are the most egregious. They all pretty much stem from a similar mistake: believing that the player's one good year would recur rather than all the bad years up to and after that year. Beltre's 2004 (1.017 OPS), Guzman's 2001 (.814 OPS), Erstad's 2000 (.950 OPS), and Alfonzo's 2000 (.967 OPS). Bell got a big contract because he was on the 2001 Mariners team that won a league record 116 games.

Brewers 7, Giants 4
Leave it to me to jinx the Crew. I insult Matheny and he goes and hits a home run, turning what was once a nice easy victory into a bit of a pain in the butt. I think the Giants are out of offense for the time being, but the Crew probably should have had an easier time of it. The problem so far is the bullpen. Turnbow has done fine as the closer, and Wise has been good except for one outing, but the rest of the 'pen has big time ups and downs. So when the starter can't get through 7 (like today), that 7th inning can be a nailbiter.

Maybe Kolb can get it done, but he's been injured, and I'm not sure I trust him just yet. The other guys (Lehr, De La Rosa, Capellan) simply can't put two good performances together.

Diff in Exp Runs for 2006: from -13.41 to -13.75
Diff in Exp Runs Allowed for 2006: from +23.02 to +20.83
Quick Hit: Brewers got a bit lucky today, as Davis got out of some ugly jams early on. Power overcame baserunners, though, and they got the win.

One Last Note on the Giants
Since the Giants are out of the Brewers' minds until they visit San Fran in mid-July, I thought I'd add this last note.

The Giants are pretty much a team of role players put together as a complete team. I look at a lot of their guys, and the players are good, but only for certain situations. Aside from Alou, Wynn, Bonds, and Vizquel, I'm not sure there's a regular position player on this club.

Matheny is suitable as a backup catcher, as is their current backup catcher Todd Greene. Finley is an old greying player suitable for pinch-hitting or defense. Jason Ellison is an awesome pinch-runner. Mark Sweeney, who frequently plays first, is the best left-handed pinch hitter in the game. Feliz is a good utility man, as is Vizcaino. Frandsen is still a rookie, but BP thinks he'll be a fine starter at 2nd. Niekro looks like a right-handed platoon player at first.

Bonds, Alou, and Vizquel are also getting old, and Wynn is about league average at best. With those four (plus pitcher extraordinaire Jason Schmidt) as their core, I'm not sure the Giants are a very fear-inducing club (though I must confess that the NL West is pretty weak and they could sneak into first).

Wednesday, May 3rd, 2006: San Francisco 2, Milwaukee 0
Jason Schmidt version 2003 has arrived and he's making the Brewers look like little kids. Jenkins rocked a leadoff double on him, though, in the 7th, but Lee, Fielder, and Hall left him there. Hall, by the way, is a career 0 for 10 now against Schmidt. Weeks was 1 for 3 with a HBP. (Where hast thou gone, Earl Weaver?)

Bush is pitching well, but gave up a home run to Pedro Feliz right after plunking Alou. Other than that he's only given up 2 singles in 8 innings. (I should note here that giving up a home run after one of only 3 other baserunners has reached is typical of how the Brewers have been defensively inefficient.) Schmidt is right around 80 pitches, so I don't see the Crew getting a break down the stretch.

Should the Brewers lose, it will add to the bad news of Ohka's rotator cuff being torn. Looks like he may be out for the year...

De La Rosa pitched a beautiful 9th, getting Vizquel, Wynn, and Bonds without any trouble. If things hold, the Brewers will have gotten Barry out all 4 times, and issued no walks to anybody.

A beautiful pitching performance went for naught. Tip o' the cap to Schmidt, though he didn't really kick ass. He only had 7 strikeouts and had a TON of fly outs. That usually means the opponent is a bit unlucky. Still, five baserunners and six total bases is a very fine performance.

Carlos Lee bailed Schmidt out by swinging at the first pitch when two guys got on. Then Fielder whiffed to end the best threat of the game.

Diff in Exp Runs for 2006: from -13.4 to -13.41
Diff in Exp Runs Allowed for 2006: from +20.92 + 23.02
Quick Hit: The Brewers actually ended up outplaying San Fran, and though it was a tight game, the Brewers' two big choke jobs (not getting Jenkins in in the 6th and not getting anybody in in the 9th) coupled with a Feliz home run is what did them in. Really, I can't see how the Giants have a winning record (14-13). They're pretty bad. They're going to have to keep on winning a bunch of 2-0 or 3-2 type of games this season. The Brewers just have to start knocking in their guys on base.

Tuesday, May 2nd, 2006: Bases Loaded
One of the reasons the Brewers have given up so many runs and scored a bit fewer (despite the peripherals) is due to performance with the bases loaded. The Brewers are a pitiful 7 for 37 with a .463(!) OPS. That's like having a league-average pitcher bat every time with the bases loaded.

The opponents? They're batting 9 for 24 with a 1.142 OPS. That's like facing Barry Bonds with the bases loaded.

There's no way this can keep up to this degree, I think. In fact, the Crew is showing signs of getting out of it, as they were 3 for 29 just a few days ago, having gone 4 for 8 since.

Houston 5, Brewers 0, top of 2nd
I was looking forward to Benny busting the 'Stros in the teeth and getting the Crew a nice little 2 game sweep, but it's not looking so good. For one, he can't get anybody out. It's unfrickincanny. He loads the bases against mediocre lineup of Lamb, Wilson, and Ausmus, then, with bases loaded, keeps up the crappy bases loaded effort of his teammates and gives up a double to Adam F***in' Everett (who can't hit, but is clobbering the Brewers this year). Still nobody out. Next guy up - pitcher Fernando Nieve, who has all of 13 innings and 0 hits in his career - hits a single to get it to 4. The Astros are up 4-0, have gone 6 for 7 against Benny, and who knows where it will all end.

Houston 5, Brewers 2, bottom of 2nd
Hall jerked an 0-2 pitch over the centerfield wall after a 1-out double by Fielder. I always hate it when an opponent hits an 0-2 pitch over the wall, so it's nice the Astros gave one up for us. In fact, that's the fourth home run the Crew has put up this year with an 0-2 count, which matches the TOTAL they had all of last year with an 0-2 count.

The Brewers got two more guys on (including a Ben Sheets single), but Weeks popped out to right to end the threat.

Houston 7, Brewers 2, top of 3rd
Ben's missing the zone a lot, and even when he gets ahead of the hitters, it looks like they're not swinging at his curve. He's given up three straight hits this inning to center, and part of the problem is that they aren't swinging at his curve out of the zone. Perhaps he's tipping it somehow.

Man, it fucking sucks that he can't get chumps like Ausmus or Everett (or even the pitcher Nieve) out. He's probably hurt his damned shoulder again.

Crap. Looks like Yost is mailing it in, he brought in Hendrickson. Hopefully, it's not as bad as the results seem to show. He wasn't walking folks, he was just getting rocked.

Shit. Hendrickson can't get Everett out either. No game night. Sick as a dog. Brewers suck. Sheets probably injured (the day after Ohka was, too). Tonight is just a fucking disaster.

Houston 7, Brewers 3, bottom of 3rd
Looks like Nieve's sitting around too much. Last inning he gave up a double and a dinger. This inning he gives up a dinger to Hardy after two pitches. Actually, if I'm an Astros fan, I'm a bit annoyed, but I like his approach - throw strikes early. You've got a 5 run lead. A solo shot won't kill you, but a bunch of walks will. (Now that I've said that, he started both Jenkins and Lee with balls.)

Even if the Crew comes back to get some runs, I can't see Hendrickson and a cast of thousands keeping the Astros at 7 for 6 innings. I can imagine the Brewers getting to 7 or 8, but giving up 3 or 4 over the rest of the game to lose something like 12 to 7 or 8.

Houston 7, Brewers 3, bottom of 4th
You know, as well as Houston's hitting tonight (11 for 21), they've been pretty softly hit except for the Everett ground-rule double. The Brewers have more extra-base hits, which makes me think that Ben just didn't have his curve tonight, and his fastball was finding holes...OR, his curve ball kept hanging. (Neither - there are whispers his shoulder hurts, but his fastball topped out at around 90.)

Houston 8, Brewers 5
The Brewers hung in there, but couldn't get it done. A couple errors late on both offense and defense hurt, though.

Diff in Exp Runs for 2006: from -13.28 to -13.4
Diff in Exp Runs Allowed for 2006: from +19.69 to +20.92
Based on the stats the Crew should have: WON by a score of 8 to 1
Quick Hit: The Brewers were about where they should have been in terms of runs, but the Astros had an extra one - mostly thanks to the errors.

Monday, May 1st, 2006: Brewers 4, Astros 2
The Brewers had put together all the makings of another frustrating game. In the second inning they loaded the bases with 1 out and got another heap of crap (line out, fly out). Then, in the fifth, Weeks got to second with nobody out (single + stolen base), and Hardy couldn't move him over, and Jenkins and Lee couldn't drive him in.

Wandy Rodriguez is maintaining his lucky year so far (.215 BABIP). Why the Brewers can't exploit guys like Wandy or Brian Bannister is beyond me. He only managed 6 innings and didn't get the win, but the kid has got Fortuna smiling at him.

Uh-oh...there may be some bad news. Ohka came out after 5 innings and 64 pitches, having given up only 2 hits (both singles in the first inning - and one of THOSE was a bunt) and 0 earned runs.

On a good note...the Brewers managed to get men on 2nd and 3rd (Fielder and Hall on a walk and a double) in the 8th with nobody out. They got them both in on Sac Flies (Miller and Clark). I'll take it. Then Turnbow came in for the 9th. Berkman got on thanks to a Carlos Lee error, so Derrick says, "Fine, if you guys are going to mess up, I'll take care of these f***ers myself." Three straight strikeouts (against Ensberg, Preston Wilson, and Jason Lane - all power hitters) to end the game. Nice.

Diff in Exp Runs for 2006: from -9.00 to -13.28
Diff in Exp Runs Allowed for 2006: from +18.57 to +19.69
Based on the stats the Crew should have: WON by a score of 8 to 1
Quick Hit: The Brewers underperformed with the bats but pulled out a knuckle-biter anyway. The two Brewers errors (which Runs Scored Allowed doesn't calculate) helped the Astros out, so let's say the final score should have been 8 to 2.

Yankees 3, Red Sox 3, 8th inning
Sheesh. It could be worse. The Red Sox have had 14 base runners to the Yankees 6 yet they are mired in a 3-3 tie. Chien-Ming Wang (10 runners in 5 IP) and Aaron Small (4 baserunnrs in 2 IP) are doing their daredevlish stunt pitching again.

Justice, the Brewers, and the Yankees' opponents triumph. The Yankees flushed all that good luck down the toilet and lost 7 to 3 anyway. Small's beautiful 10-0 record of last year won't happen in 2006, as he was tagged for the loss.

Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are in big trouble. When I "watched" (via Gamecast) the Cubs-Brewers game (which the Crew dropped 6 to 2), I was mostly upset because I couldn't believe the Cubs managed 6 runs. They did, but only by stringing together their hits. If you spaced out their baserunners a bit, adding a couple outs here and there, they really wouldn't have scored as much.

Let me re-phrase that. They have a shit offense. All the guys who can be expected to hit a little all connected for hits in sequence. If THOSE guys made more outs, the Brewers would have been in better shape. There are some guys on that team that won't do anything except make outs.

By "some guys" I mean Henry Blanco, Neifi Perez, and the pitcher Greg Maddux. Aside from Juan Pierre (who's average if he's getting his slap singles) and Aramis Ramirez (who's really struggling), I don't want that lineup anywhere except in the opposing dugout. With Derrek Lee out of the lineup for 2 to 3 months, the Cubs are going with:

Juan Pierre - CF
Roger Cedeno - SS
Todd Walker - 1B
Aramis Ramirez - 3B
Matt Murton - LF
Jacques Jones - RF
Michael Barrett - C
Jerry Hairston Jr. - 2B

When ANY of these guys sit out, Dusty Baker has to go with Neifi, Blanco, and John Mabry. Outside the realms of defensive sub, backup catcher, and lefty-pinch hitter, these guys are magnficiently brutal.

When one factors in the fact that all the other starters (with the exception of Ramirez) are happy to be hanging around league average, this club looks really mediocre.

What may be worse is that they are all a bunch of hackers. They may not strikeout, but no one takes walks that much, though Ramirez already has 12 this year after taking only 35 last year. Career ABs per Walk (generally you want to be under 10):

Perez: 22.8
Cedeno: 17.6
Pierre: 15.3
Jones: 15.2
Ramirez: 14.0
Barrett: 12.4
Hairston: 11.5
Walker: 11.1
Murton: 8.3
*Derrek Lee: 7.7 (*On Disabled List)

With all these hackeroos in there (I include Neifi Perez to make the Cub faithful cringe), they won't tire out the opposing pitcher, meaning that a guy like Doug Davis can walk 5 and still make it through nearly 7 innings, and Chris Capuano can shut them out on 5 hits in 9 innings and only throw 91 pitches.

(Just for comparison, I checked the Brewers, and four of them fell under the 10 AB per BB rate: Koskie, Weeks, Clark and Hardy. This is slightly unfair, though, as Jenkins has been at that rate 2 of 3 years, and Fielder's minor league stats show a high walk rate. He'll be under the 10 AB/BB threshold within two weeks, I'd guess. Damian Miller is incredibly close, at 10.3 AB/BB. Of the Cubs, only Hairston has shown any improvement in this category - aside from Ramirez's start to this season, which screams "FLUKE!") And once Maddux (1.35 ERA), Eyre (.77 ERA), Dempster (1.50 ERA) and Howry (1.59 ERA) start regressing to the mean...this club may be lucky to get 75 wins by the end of the year.

Other Notes
The Cubs are thinking of kicking Glendon Rusch out of the rotation. He's struggling to the tune of an 8.64 ERA (league average is 4.50. Glendon's is under the heading "Disastrous"). Here's what an article had to say:

A possibility for Rusch's spot in the rotation is LHP Rich Hill, who is pitching for Triple-A Iowa. In four starts at Iowa, Hill is 1-0 with a 1.44 ERA.

Here's a question. Why don't the Cubs worry that, after 4 starts, Hill has only a 1-0 record? If he were really good, his record would be 3-0 or 4-0.

That's baloney, of course. A 1.44 ERA looks much better than a 4-0 record with a 5.05 ERA. Yet a lot of managers and sportswriters still look to the Win-Loss record to decide if a player's any good.

Let's take two examples. Pitcher A and pitcher B. Here's how they stack up over 5 starts each (each column is how many runs he gives up):

Pitcher A 2 4 3 6 1

Pitcher B 5 4 4 3 4

In the above table, pitcher number one leads the head-to-head battle 3-1-1, withc a total of 16 runs surrendered to 20. Yet his record was 1-4 over 32.1 Innings while the 2nd pitcher's record was 4-0 over 29.1 Innings. So the Player A gave up FEWER runs in MORE innings, but had a Win percentage .800 WORSE. Why? Luck, mostly. The Brewers scored more runs. (Partly because Capuano's a much better hitter than Ben is and also because Ben usually gets Moeller as his catcher rather than Miller, who is far better offensively.)

Which pitcher would you rather have?

By the way, Player A is Ben Sheets, Player B is Chris Capuano.

Sunday, April 30th, 2006: Brewers 9, Cubs 0
Capuano pitched a gem and the Crew beat the snot out of Zambrano to make their Runs Scored/Allowed ratio almost match their predicted Runs scored/allowed.

In fact, Capuano pitched so well (5 singles, two erased by a GIDP and a caught stealing) that he brought the Brewers' expected runs DOWN by almost a run, and despite pitching a shutout, made the difference between Expected and Actual runs almost a run higher.

Saturday, April 29th, 2006: Brewers 16, Cubs 2
The Brewers really slapped Glendon Rusch around today. Davis had the opportunity to waste the great start by giving the Cubs a big first inning, but with 1 out, 2 men on, and behind 3-0 to Aramis Ramirez, he came through with a pop up and a fly out (to Matt Murton) to get out of the jam and hang in there.

Sometimes the Brewers do play all right...

Friday, April 28th, 2006: Cubs 6, Brewers 2
I rushed home at about 1:00 from school today because the "Friday afternoon bug everyone in the library jame session" had started at the Library Mall. So I come home, find the Brewers in a bases loaded situation against Maddux in the first inning, one out. What happens?

Fielder strikes out.
Koskie flies out.

End of threat. Now the Brewers are an awesome 3 for 29 in bases loaded situations.

What's extra frustrating is that the very first batter the Cubs get on (Aramis Ramirez with a double), he gets knocked in (by another double) Then Murton gets knocked in with a double (by Jacques Jones, who has otherwise been completely worthless this year).

The way that teams keep getting clutch hits off the Crew bugs me. Let's check out the team as a whole.

Player OPS - Nobody On OPS - Runners on Difference (Runners-Nobody)

Tomo Ohka .972 .555 -.417

Dave Bush .550 .714 +.164

Chris Capuano .627 .527 -.100

Doug Davis .935 .805 -.130

Well, I suppose I'm wrong about that. I'd check the bullpen, but the Crew have got me all pissed off because they blew another bases loaded situation and have now not only given up 4 doubles and 3 runs, but have added botching a sacrifice play and are now going to get their asses kicked, and Maddux has pulled out another 1993 out of his ass.

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Huzzah!

Mini-bit of redemption as the Brewers score two runs in the 5th when Dave Bush starts the rally with a single. (When the Brewers let a pitcher get a hit, it drives me bananas.) But of course...the Brewers have guys on the corners with 1 out and they ground into a double play...

Then Koskie allows a bunt single to Pierre to start the bottom of the 5th. THEN Ronnie Cedeno hits a dinger. (The second of his entire career.) I tell you, these guys just LOVE to take away moments of hope.

In fact this game has been filled of WAVES OF EVIL:

Inning #2: 3 straight doubles = 2 Cub runs. Then, 3 straight outs.
Inning #3: double, single, single = 1 Cub runs. Then, 3 straight outs.
Inning #5: bunt single, home run, single = 2 Cub runs. Then, 3 straight outs.

In innings 1 and 4, in fact, Bush went three up, three down.

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More of the same.

The Brewers have just as many hits + walks (9) as the Cubs through 5 1/2 innings, and yet they trail by three.

Part of the reason is that the Cubs have 5 extra base hits to the Brewers' 1, though. But they really should have at least 4 runs today, making this more of a game.

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Koskie has now allowed 3 infield hits, and the Cubs, after recording two outs in the 7th, have mustered up a rally: infield single, wild pitch, walk, walk, and ...foul out. The Crew outlasted the WAVE OF EVIL that time.

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A very bad 8th inning. Jenkins whiffs, Lee walks, Fielder whiffs, Koskie whiffs. Scott Eyre took 'em out as the best situational lefty can.

Lehr gives up a leadoff homer to Jones next inning, and the game's pretty much done.

Really, the Crew played pretty crappy today. I complain because they had 11 baserunners and only scored 2 runs, but they were completely outdone today, as the Cubs have managed 15 baserunners and way more extra base hits. Had the Brewers put something big together in the first, I wonder if things would have gone differently...

Wednesday, April 26th, 2006: Brewers 5, Braves 4
The Brewers gutted their way through a sweep today and got Ben Sheets his first win of the season. I wanted to stop for a moment, take a breather, and state what I think the Crew needs to have a playoff bound season. There are some things that should be taken as a given, such as that Carlos Lee will be a 30-100 guy and Jenkins will be just below that. I want to focus on the things I think have the most import but are the most questionable.

#1 - Will the rookies improve?

The rooks - Weeks, Hardy, and Fielder, had a mix of up and down stuff. To be honest, we'll be lucky if two of them stick. I think Fielder will have the most upside early and will eventually hit. Weeks and Hardy...I'm not sure. One will probably come forward, one won't. Hardy can play solid D, but doesn't have the offensive potential of Weeks. The fan in me hopes both of them improve and stick, but the skeptic in me is hesitant.

#2 - Will Capuano become a genuine major leaguer? Cappy was great last year, but that was his first extended success. I hope he keeps it up - and so far he's been spectacular - but we need to see for sure.

#3 - Will Sheets be healthy? Ben looks like the guy who had a 2.70 ERA a couple years ago...but will those back muscles hold up?

#4 - Do we need a CF? I'm worried about Brady. He's a 33 year old CF who had his career year last year. He may suddenly go in the tank.

#5 - What do we do with Hart and Cruz? Are they legitimate? Should we trade Lee and Jenkins to give these two playing time? Do we trade them? Something's gotta give with all these OFs (plus Gabe Gross!).

#6 - Will the bullpen perform again? This question is a perennial one for every team in the league. The Crew got some excellent performances out of Matt Wise and Derrek Turnbow last year. Are they repeatable? So far they've been fine (except for 1 of Matt's innings in Houston), but repeating excellence in the bullpen is rare...except for the very elite. We'll probably have to anticipate some slippage from DT and MW, but hopefully we'll get "make up" performances from fellows like De La Rosa, Adams, Capellan, Kolb, and Lehr.

Really, these are the six key questions. A severe injury to Damian Miller might be critical, too, as Chad Moeller is an awful offensive player, but Damian's not a superstar or anything.

There are other questions, of course, but the scope of the players' performances leads me to believe that projecting them isn't as essential as the others. We should worry about all the pitchers, but I'm not expecting much more than league average innings out of Davis, Bush, and Ohka. If Davis keeps up this awfulness, I might start worrying, but he had a bad stretch last year, too, and managed to get over it. For instance, this year he has 21 BBs to 20 Ks. Last year, he had 17 BBs to 22 Ks. Throw in one performance against the Reds (who only walk or beat the crap out of you) and he doesn't look quite so bad as the stats indicate. I think another 4-4.7 ERA isn't too much to expect from him.

Tuesday, April 25th, 2006: Brewers 4, Braves 2
I was pretty excited that the Brewers won yesterday, but when you look at the lineup the Braves had, it was, well, pretty mediocre. First, there was no Chipper and no Renteria. The pitcher was essentially a rookie, Jeff Francoeur has forgotten how to hit, and Marcus Prado was demoted the next day.

Then the Brewers beat the Braves again today with a better lineup - or, at least Chipper was back - and with Tim Hudson on the mound (who's apparently struggling but has always been tough to beat). It was a tight game, but a clutch hit by Prince Fielder created the go-ahead run, and Capellan and Turnbow held the lead for the Dr. Jekyll Ohka.

Also, this was the second game where a stolen base was key to the Brewers' rally. In Monday's game, Fielder's steal provoked a throw so that Jenkins could zip home, and Betemit missed the throw home. Stealing home base proved to be the Brewers' margin of victory. Tonight, Carlos Lee picked a base with 2 outs and Fielder knocked him in for the go-ahead run. It's nice to take advantage of these sorts of plays in tight games like this.

Ohka, for the record, has been about as dramatically inconsistent as you could ask for. Check out these quick rundowns (a game score is a quick evaluation of how well a pitcher pitched. The higher, the better. Anything below 50 is generally pretty bad, anything above 80 is awesome.):

Game 1 @ PIT: 7.0 IP, 5 hits, 2 runs, 1 BBs, 2 Ks, 62 Game Score
Game 2 @ STL: 4.0 IP, 6 hits, 4 runs, 4 BBs, 2 Ks, 32 Game Score
Game 3 @ NYM: 7.0 IP, 5 hits, 2 runs, 2 BBs, 5 Ks, 64 Game Score
Game 4 vs. CIN: 4.0 IP, 8 hits, 6 runs, 4 BBs, 3 Ks, 25 Game Score
Game 5 vs. ATL: 7.0 IP, 7 hits, 2 runs, 0 BBs, 3 Ks, 58 Game Score

Ohka doesn't strike out enough batters to get into the 80s (though he did hit 83 once last year thanks to an 8 inning, 0 run, 9 K, 0 BB performance), but scores in the high 50's to mid 60's are very acceptable. It's just eerie that he goes every other turn with a very fine performance. In fact, Yost and the writer for the Journal-Sentinel both noticed it before this game and predicted he'd do well.

Monday, April 24th, 2006: Braves 1, Brewers 0 (written in midgame)
After Doug Davis looked like absolute crap yesterday (an 11-0 blasting at the hands of the Reds, who stared down somewhere in the vicinity of 210 pitches yesterday), I've pretty much decided to take a big step back from the Brewers.

Part of it, is, of course, that following a struggling team is no fun (4-10 in their last 14), and the other is that my expectations were much higher than this big wave of mediocrity and bad luck.

More distressing is the self-destruction of Doug Davis. After Sheets and Capuano (who is pitching well tonight...so far), the Brewers had only one certainty, which was Davis. He's tanked. Ohka is too inconsistent and Bush is still unproven (to me, at least), though so far so good. After that, the Brewers have just about nothing.

Other problems that I don't attribute to bad luck: Weeks has a SLG of .328, which, if it holds, is a disaster. (Though Yost has offset the damage a bit by putting him at the top of the order. His OBP is pretty good - .358.) Brady Clark has fallen apart and may not get back up, with an OPS of .586.

Everything else is about where it should be, and even Clark and Weeks haven't "proven" that they're playing unacceptably for the year. Hardy's a bit down, too, but it's a bit early to get upset with him, too.

Anyway, with the new lineup, the Brewers have managed all of 2 hits in 4 IP against Kyle Davies, the man with a career 4.91 ERA and terrible walk rate. On top of that, they just failed to score a runner from third with one out....or did they? ESPN is reporting something completely bizarre. Here's what the Brewer 4th inning looks like:

G Jenkins walked.
C Lee flied out to right.
P Fielder singled to right center, G Jenkins to third.
C Koskie struck out looking, G Jenkins scored, P Fielder stole second.
D Miller lined out to center.

I just read it...Jenkins STOLE HOME! That is completely nuts. I wonder if the Brewers sent Fielder from first, then Jenkins from third and a bad throw let them both be safe (though a good pitch still got Koskie out). If that's so, then I say, "nice job" to Ned. I don't condone this nonsense if it's done every game, but I'll take it about one to four times per season...especially when we're struggling.

Saturday, April 22nd, 2006: Brewers 11, Reds 0
Now that's more like it. If only the Crew could spread these kind of performances around. The 11 runs would have worked much better yesterday, and the 0 runs allowed would have been perfect for yesterday. Ah, well. That's baseball.

Friday, April 21st, 2006: Reds 3, Brewers 1
The Brewers are on the verge of losing their 9th in 12 games, which is pretty bad (especially for a team that's suppose to COMPETE this year). Anyway, I wanted to discuss the "little things" a bit.

A lot of commentators say that the "little things" win ball games. Things like moving the runner, hitting a sac fly with a guy on third, and at least getting a runner on second over to third with nobody out.

Tonight, the Reds did a little thing that could have COST them a run. Here's what I mean.

There was nobody out, guys on 1st (Adam Dunn - big slow behemoth) and 2nd (Felipe Lopez, who's pretty quick). Rich Aurilia hits a fly to deep right field, and Lopez tags up to get to third. Now there are runners on first and third, one out. Good job, Mr. Aurilia, right?

Not so fast. The next batter, Scott Hatteberg, hits a single, scoring Lopez from third. With a 2 to 1 lead, though, and single up the middle with runners on first and second, the Reds still would have sent Lopez, meaning that Gross would have tried throwing him out and most likely failing. In this instance, Dunn could run to third, Hatteberg to second (both advancing on the throw home), and the Reds could have had guys on 2nd and 3rd, one out. McCracken grounded into a DP on the very next play, so perhaps if Lopez had NOT gone, they still might be batting for a big inning.

Frustrating Losses
*Sigh* After 8 innings, the Brewers have blown chances in back to back to bacck innings to score against a tiring Arroyo and have simply not done it. Meanwhile, Sheets hands the ball off to Jose Capellan and he immediately gave up a run.

Right now the Brewers are as frustrating to watch as any team in the league. They rarely get the big hit, and in the off chance that they do, the bullpen has been squandering the lead. Let's examine the last 9 losses (including tonight):

Loss #1: Lose 7 to 0 to Arizona. They were due. They were 5-0 at this point, getting very very lucky.

Loss #2: Lost 6 to 4 to St. Louis. After being hamstrung by Mark Mulder all night, they manage to score two in the 9th, then get two runners on against Isringhausen. No more big hits, they lose.

Loss #3: Lost 8 to 3 to St. Louis. Headline reads, "Marquis, Edmonds top Struggling Brewers." The Brewers outhit the Card tonight 9 to 7, but left 8 on base to the Cards 2. That's right, the Cards scored a miraculous 8 out of 10 baserunners, the Brewers a mediocre 3 out of 11.

Loss #4: Lost 4 to 3 to NY Mets. Brewers again outhit the opponent (this time 9 to 6) and still lose, leaving 10 of 13 baserunners on while the Mets score 4 of 7.

Loss #5: Lost 9 to 3 to NY Mets. Probably the worst of them all. Brewers bash the living crap out of Brian Bannister (11 baserunners in 5 innings) and yet lose by 6. Still in a tight, 4 to 3 game, the bullpen gets run out of Shea on a rail. The Brewers left 14 out of 17 runners on base, while the Mets left only 4 out of 13.

Loss #6: Lost 8 to 7 to Houston. Another nasty loss. The Brewers break through for 3 runs in the 7th to take a three run lead and Matt Wise gives up 5 in the next inning. Then, to torture us, the Brewers get one run back so that they can lose by one run instead of two.

Loss #7: Lost 13 to 12 to Houston. Doug Davis stinks for 2.2 Innings, surrendering 9 runs. The offense comes back to life but the bullpen gives up just enough runs to let Houston maintain the lead. A Carlos Lee home run (just like loss #6) in the ninth results in a one-run loss instead of a higher number alternative.

Loss #8: Lost 12 to 8 to Cincinnati. Given an early 4 run lead, Tomo Ohka and the bullpen completely implode over the last 6 innings to give the Reds an easy win. The Brewers get the bases loaded in the 8th with one out. The two futures of the franchise strike out in back to back at bats to quash any possible rally.

Loss #9 (now official): Lost 3 to 1 to Cincinnati. Squandering a brilliant Ben Sheets start (2 runs and 10 K's in 7 IP), the Brewers manage to get men to 3rd, 2nd, and 2nd against a tiring Bronson Arroyo in the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings. Nada. Ex-Brewer David Weathers shuts them down 1-2-3 in the 9th.

There were a couple wins in there, including a tight 4-3 win over the Cards, an easy 8-2 win over the Mets, and a clutch 7-2 win over the Astros and Andy Pettitte, but losing the way they have is no good. The pitching is completely off and the offense is not doing anything in the clutch. They have scored 84 runs and surrendered 94. According to my calculations, they should have scored 93 and surrendered 75. They are currently at (-9) + (-19) = -28 runs below expectation overall, meaning that their current 8-9 record should really be 10-7.

Maybe they'll turn it around, but I need to chillax or I'm going to scream bloody murder all season. It sucks that there are expectations this year and they have start out behind the 8 ball of luck.

Orioles 6, Yankees 5
The Yanks are off to a poor start, too, and they have much higher expectations to turn it around, and I have no problem believing that they will. They, like the Brewers, are in 5th place, with a 7-8 record to the Brewers' 8-9.

The Yankees didn't really try to get another starter in the offseason, trusting in the surprisingly good Shawn Chacon and Chien-Ming Wang of last year, plus the aging Mike Mussina and Randy Johnson, plus the shoulder-injuries waiting to happen of Jaret Wright and Carl Pavano.

Mussina looks great so far, and Johnson has looked wonderful in 3 of 4 starts (but that 4th was a doozy). Pavano has yet to pitch. Wright and Chacon are getting the crap kicked out of them, and Wang's strikeout rate hasn't improved much over last year. His ERA has now fluffed up to 5.48, and his K to BB ratio is a very mediocre 14 to 9. If he doesn't turn it around soon, he's going to be bitchslapped back to the minors.

If only I had the faith that the Brewers were going to make the rebound like I know the Yankees will.

Thursday, April 20th, 2006: Reds 12, Brewers 6
The Brewers came out and kicked butt, holding a 6-2 lead over their bitch, a pitcher named Dave Williams. Then Ohka takes the mound in the fourth, a four run lead, gets ahead 1-2 on Edwin Encarnacion...and walks him. I was in my car picking up Thai food at the time and I cursed bloody murder. No excuse for giving the opponent a break at that point.

The next player jacked a home run, and as of this moment the Brewers are down 12-6, thanks to Mike Adams. Here's another thing that pisses me off. He comes in, bases loaded, and gives up a walk(!). THEN he gives up the grand slam. If you're going to groove one, groove it to the first guy. Spare your ERA a run, why don'cha.

Karla tells me not to get so upset, but these early leads followed by totally sucking are the worst of all possible plots for a fan to listen to, and the Brewers have had a couple of 'em this week. Monday night's Astros game was the killer, changing them from a 6 to 3 lead to an 8 to 6 deficit in a matter of one inning. I'm not happy with the pitching right now. I mean, the Brewers always have trouble with the Reds, but everyone's been getting WAY too many runs on them, and it has a lot to do with walks and untimely home runs.

Wednesday, April 19th, 2006: Brewers 7, Astros 2
After a frustratingly close 13 to 12 loss on Tuesday, the Brewers played tight against Pettitte, then pounded the Astro relievers (again) to seal the deal. The Brewers beat the living tar out of the Astro relievers this series:

Astros bullpen:
Monday: 3 IP, 4 Runs
Tuesday: 2.1 IP, 6 Runs
Wednesday: 2 IP, 5 Runs

By my count, that's 7.1 IP and 15 runs. The Brewers' pen wasn't much better, surrendering 9 runs in 7.1 IP (actually, despite the ugly numbers, they were 6 runs better...) before pitching scoreless baseball tonight.

No one was exempt from the Brewers battering. Every pitcher that made an appearance in the series was slapped around a bit, even Brad Lidge, who gave up a two-run shot to Carlos Lee on Tuesday night to complete the scoring.

Monday, April 17th, 2006: Astros 8, Brewers 7
Good grief. The Brewers dominate the Mets and lose 2 of 3. Tonight, they had no business leading the Astros by 3 in the 7th (only 3 hits - all home runs - and 6 runs. The Astros had 9 hits and only 3 runs), and Matt Wise, my favorite Brewers reliever, gets roasted for 5 runs and lets the 'Stros win it.

So now the Brewers can't win when they should and they can't win when they shouldn't. Despite a 7-6 record, I'm starting to feel pretty glum about this season. I think I'm getting too excited after each win and too pissed after each loss.

Sunday, April 16th, 2006: Mets 9, Brewers 3
The Brewers gave Brian Bannister the most undeserved win in the history of baseball today, losing an inexplicable 9 to 3 contest. The Brewers ended inning 1 with 2 runners on and innings 2 and 3 with the bases loaded. Add a guy on second in the 4th inning, and the Brewers had 9 men left on - 6 in scoring position - at the end of the first 4 innings.

Here's Bannister's incredible line: 5 IP, 112 pitches, 6 hits, 1 run, 5 walks, 4 strikeouts. He never broke 85 on the radar gun...and the Brewers only got to him for one measly run.

What was especially aggravating was that Ben Sheets let his first baserunner on in the 2nd...and he scored one out later on a home run. So after 4 innings, the Mets had 2 runs, 1 LOB. The Brewers? 1 run, 9 LOB. The inefficiency of the Brewer offense (and hyper-efficiency of their opponents) was as strong as their 9-3 loss to the Cards the other day.

Today, they had 17 base runners (+1 Mets error) result in a paltry 3 runs. The Mets had 13 base runners turn into 9(!) runs. This kind of nonsense canNOT continue, and if I were the GM of the Mets, I'd be really worried about Bannister. That 2.25 ERA is going to get blown out of the water. Had the Brewers not helped him out in those bases loaded situations, he probably would have walked in a couple runs.

It's aggravating that the Crew is wasting these hits. After the last two games, their Runs Scored to Allowed is 48 to 53, a -5. It should be 57 to 39, or +18. The Brewers are 23 runs below (in toto) where they should be. It's frustrating, but at least it's assuring that they're better than they're playing (and yet they're still 7-5). Of those 5 losses, the only one that really stunk was the 7-0 loss to Arizona and the 6-4 loss to St. Louis. They completely outperformed the Mets but still lost two out of three. They'll be fine, so long as this bad luck doesn't continue.

Friday, April 14th, 2006: Mets 4, Brewers 3
The Brewers are having some early trouble scoring runs this year, and despite outhitting their opponents they're not scoring as many runs. Check out these quick line scores (first line is runs, second is hits + walks + HBP, third is errors committed):

Friday the 15th:
Brewers: 3/13/1
Mets: 4/8/1

Thursday the 14th:
Brewers: 4/12/1
Cards: 3/11/3

Wednesday the 13th:
Brewers: 3/10/2
Cards: 8/9/2

Monday the 11th:
Brewers: 4/12/1
Cards: 6/14/0

As you can see, the Brewers are generally outhitting and walking the opposition, but aren't being as efficient. (In the 4/11 game, the Brewers had 10 hits to the Cards' 8, but 6 walks tipped the balance in favor of the Cards.) The most frustrating game was the 4/13 game, where they lost by 5 despite getting more men on base. The Mets game was pretty bad, too, highlighted by whiffing 11(!) times against the 40 year old Tom Glavine.

The stats for the year are even more odd:

Brewers .255 BA .333 OBP .373 SLG 41.16 Runs Created

Opponents .211BA .294 OBP .351 SLG 31.55 Runs Created

In the real world, Brewers opponents have knocked in 42 runs - 10.45 more than their expectation - and the Brewers have knocked in 37 - 4.16 BELOW expectation. Normally, these types of things even out, so I'll smugly sit back and wait for the Brewers to steadily improve in the "timely hitting" department.

Wednesday, April 12th, 2006: Milwaukee at St. Louis
I won't really get excited about the Brewers until they start playing the Cards better. Last year they suffered at the hands of the Cards to the tune of 5-11. This year they're off to a similar, 0-2 start. They get killed by Pujols and Edmonds, both of whom get some pretty tight strike zones, in my humble and incredibly biased opinion.

Yesterday, Mark Mulder singlehandedly crushed the Crew 6-4 (though the Brewers made it interesting at the end), and today after drawing to within 4-3 in the 4th, Brewers gave up a 4-run double in the 5th. I had hoped Dave Bush would put these guys down - he was red hot - but he's having trouble hitting the strike zone.

I guess I shouldn't be too upset - the Brewers have 7 hits to the Cards' 7, meaning that only walks and opportunistic hitting are hurting them and not a total talent disparity - but the Crew really don't have a big bopper like a Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, or Albert Pujols. That and a more solid rotation is what makes the Cards a favorite and the Crew average.

Monday, March 27th, 2006
Okay, things are looking better. Ben Sheets reports that he feels awesome and the only problem has been control on his change up. Fielder is okay, and Hardy's going to give it a go with his spazzy back. With Davis, Cappy, Ohka, and Bush, the Crew have a set of starters to be envied by most other squads (except maybe the Cards).

On top of that, they've got four possible guys they can put in the rotation if they get in trouble: Helling, Jackson, Sarfate, and (*gulp*) Hendrickson. The outfield is stacked with Lee, Jenkins, Brady, Corey Hart, and Gabe Gross. Should one of them go down, we've got Nelson Cruz waiting in the wings. I would actually like to see a Hart-Brady-Cruz outfield, but I can't see the Brewers trading both Jenkins and Lee. At the moment, I like Jenkins more than Lee, but if Lee gets hot, I can live with this outfield. More interestingly, I would like to see if Hart could play center. That would be frickin' awesome.

The only problem I see is at Catcher. If Miller goes out for any reasonable period, the Brewers are stuck with Chad Moeller - and that would be some bad news, my brother. Miller's not the cat's meow, but he's adequate, and adequacy in a catcher is better than about a million other things.

In fact, the state of catching (wicket-keeping for you cricket fans) is in bad shape nowadays. With Lopez moving from behind the dish, Lo Duca and Pierzynski being overrated, Jason Kendall falling to pieces, and Pudge Rodriguez, Piazza, Varitek and Posada getting old, there is almost no one to get excited about...except Victor Martinez in Cleveland and Joe Mauer in Minnesota. Michael Barrett is a quiet guy in Chicago, too. I must admit to not being a believer in Ramon Hernandez in Baltimore nor Ben Molina in Toronto.

Good grief, even with Piazza, Lo Duca, and Barrett in the NL, National League catching is pretty grim, and the Brewers don't look so bad with Miller out there. It's better than having guys like Mike Matheny (Giants), Yadier Molina (Cards), and Ausmus ('Stros). He's about equal to Jason LaRue (Cincy), Brian Schneider (Nats), and Johnny Estrada (D'backs), but probably without the upside of Brian McCann (Braves), who could help keep Atlanta in for their 209th straight playoff appearance.

My only problem is that the Brewers have no McCann or Mauer or Martinez. But hardly anyone else does, either.

State of the Brewers
Everyone loves the Crew this year, from well, me, to the Baseball Prospectus guys. Let's see how they stack up, in terms of Equivalent Average, across the league.

Pos Name NL Central Rank

C Damian Miller 2nd (Tie)

1B Prince Fielder 5th

2B Rickie Weeks 1st

3B Corey Koskie 4th

SS J.J. Hardy 2nd

LF Carlos Lee 2nd

CF Brady Clark 4th

RF Geoff Jenkins 1st

Rotat. Sheets, Davis, Capuano
Ohka, Bush 2nd

Pen Turnbow, Wise, Helling
Kolb, De La Rosa 3rd

First Base: For Fielder, I feel I'm being conservative. Derrek Lee, Albert Pujols, Adam Dunn, and Lance Berkman have to be considered better until we see Prince over a full season. Sean Casey of Pittsburgh? No thanks. Still, I'm hoping the difference between Lee and Fielder isn't that great.

Second Base: This position is a mess in the NL Central. Houston's going with the aging and declining Craig Biggio. The Reds have *gack* Tony Womack. St. Louis dug Junior Spivey out of the gutter. The Pirates are going with Jose Castillo, who isn't terrible, but doesn't have much upside. The Cubs have probably the next best thing with a Todd Walker/Jerry Hairston combo. Weeks will dominate this crowd with a bad year, and put them to absolute frickin' shame with a good or great year.

Third Base: For the Cards, Scott Rolen should be fine, and he's better than anything Koskie can pull out of his ass, as is the Cubs' Aramis Ramirez (if healthy). Morgan Ensberg is a big favorite of mine, so he gets a nod over Koskie, but Joe Randa of Pittsburgh and rookie Edwin Encarnacion are a notch below due to age and inexperience, respectively.

Shortstop: I love J.J., and I think he has enough power to outproduce Eckstein's plate discipline. He's basically a bigger version of Eckstein - stronger bat, stronger glove, stronger arm. The Cubs will probably go with Neifi Perez because they're retarded, and I still don't think Jack Wilson has another 2004 in him for Pittsburgh. I'll give Lopez of the Reds the top nod, but I think J.J. can top him. Houston is hoping for miracles out of Everett. Left Field: Except for Pittsburgh's Jason Bay, Lee laps the field. St. Louis will be going with some sort of platoon of John Rodriguez and So Taguchi. Cincinnati traded Wily Mo to Boston. I don't know who will replace him. The Astros don't have much either - nothing to match Lee's production, just a couple of AAAA players. The Cubs have Matt Murton, who will be okay, but not a Carlos Lee.

Center Field: The Cards have Edmonds and the Reds have Griffey, both of whom are fantastic. The Astros have Willy Tavarez, who is pretty good, but he has to prove he can do it again for me to put him above Brady. The Pirates may go with Burnitz or Gerut, but both of them are mediocre. The Cubs have Juan Pierre, who is Brady with more speed, less power. After Edmonds and Griffey, this one's close, so I'll put Brady at 4th, just to be safe.

Right Field: Jenkins had a fantastic year last year, and I expect he'll blow the NL Central field away. The Cubs have Jacques Jones, who's been overrated for years. The Reds have Austin Kearns, who can't stay healthy and is hated by the team. Pittsburgh will send out some combo of Burnitz or Craig Wilson, the first of whom is boring and mediocre, the second could be something...if he gets a chance. Houston has Jason Lane, who's Geoff Jenkins ca. 1999. The Cards have Insta-Average OF Juan Encarnacion.

Starting Pitching: The Cubs should be an easy #1 here, but Dusty Baker's 2003 tore the rotation apart. Now all the Cubs have is an old and average Greg Maddux, a yet-to-prove-himself Jerome Williams, an injured Mark Prior, an injured Kerry Wood, and - oh yeah - an absolutely awesome Carlos Zambrano. I have no idea who starters #4 or #5 will be, but color me skeptical.

The Cards rotation looks solid again. Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter, and above average inning munchers Mark Mulder, Jason Marquis, and Jeff Suppan. Their new guy is Sidney Ponson, who is worse than any guy the Brewers put out there. I also have a suspicion that Marquis and Suppan could self-destruct at any moment.

The Astros still have Oswalt and Pettitte, but no Clemens (yet). After those two, they've got mediocrity up the ying yang in Brandon Backe, Ezequiel Astacio, and Wandy Rodriguez (or Taylor Bucholz).

Pittsburgh has two potential aces in Oliver Perez and Zack Duke. Perez has had some injuries, though, and the rest of the rotation - erstwhile Brewer Victor Santos, underachiever Kip Wells, and unproven but talented Paul Maholm - will have a lot of rough spots.

The Reds, despite the recent trade for Bronson Arroyo, are a joke, except for Aaron Harang. This is a motley group of #5 starters from Hell.

I think the Brewers are emulating the Cards, with Sheets matching Carpenter (except for missing a couple weeks), and Cappy and Davis matching their next two guys. Ohka's a fine #4 and Bush could really be good, but I'll need to see it to believe it.

Bullpen: I love the way Ned uses the 'pen. I'll put him ahead of the Pirates, Reds, and Cubs simply because Ned uses his pen better, and he has talent to match any of them in Turnbow, De La Rosa, Helling, and Wise. I'll give the nod to Houston and St. Louis here, because Houston's trifecta of Wheeler, Qualls, and Lidge is great, and La Russa always has a quality pen.

Bench: Dusty misuses his bench in Chicago, so I'll casually dismiss him. The Reds don't have much right now that I can see. Pittsburgh - same thing. La Russa uses his bench well, but I have to be honest. Except for the Brewers' back up catcher situation, this bench is awesome: Gabe Gross, Corey Hart, Bill Hall, lefty masher Cirillo. The Brewers are not only set if any one guy goes down (except a catcher!), they could potentially replace the entire outfield and one or two infield positions for a period of time and not miss too much on the field. Hart can play outfield plus 3rd and 1st. Hall can play any infield position well. Gross can play outfield, and Cirillo can cover third, first, and second. They've got great pinch-hitters on the right (Hart, Cirillo, Hall) and a great one on the left (Gross).

To me, taking everything as a group, and barring injury, the Crew is the second best team in the central. The Cubs have a lot of holes and injuries, Pittsburgh and Cincy have lineup and pitching problems, respectively, and Houston relies on two great players (Ensberg and Berkman) and two very fine pitchers (Oswalt and Pettitte) to carry a mediocre lineup and 3/5 of a very average rotation. The Cards are still solid, but they're weakening, too. They settled for less at second base, and the corner outfield slots look to be rotating with average or slightly above average players. Eckstein and Edmonds are getting old, and Rolen has yet to recover from his shoulder problem of 2004. Their rotation maxed out last year, and would need a miracle to repeat its performance.

I think, with a still-weak NL West and a hyper-competitive NL East, the Crew might be able to take St. Louis. A lot of things will have to break right, though: Sheets stays healthy, Capuano and Davis remain effective, Bush, Fielder, Weeks, and Hardy progress. They have enough depth to mask any other issues, but those things need to happen. I think the young guys will progress. The biggest issues to me are Ben Sheets' shoulder and Capuano.

When all is said and done, I think we'll have an excellent team here, and GM Melvin and Manager Ned Yost have the Crew headed in the right direction.

Tuesday, March 21st, 2006
I'm starting to have a bad feeling about this season.

Forget how everyone is playing for a moment. The issue is that there are a lot of injuries popping up on some key players. Check out the list:

SP Ben Sheets hurt a muscle in his shoulder,
SS J.J. Hardy has back spasms so bad he couldn't pull on a pair of pants last week,
2B Rickie Weeks has pulled his oblique muscle - an injury I've had that completely keeps someone from swinging a bat with any power at all,
1B Prince Fielder strained his elbow a couple weeks ago, though he's been playing lately.

These four players are the key to this year's club. Though Fielder has seemed to recover fine, the other three are in various stages of discomfort. Weeks won't play again until after this weekend, and J.J. looks to have back trouble for the rest of his career! Sheets' muscle issue is enough to make me give up on him for the season.

Really, pitchers that come into a season hurt rarely turn it around. Their mechanics are off, or they have discomfort and don't trust their stuff, etc. Maybe Ben will come back next year and do something, but look at some top tier pitchers and how they've done after big injuries:

2005 Curt Schilling (ankle) - 93.1 IP, 5.69 ERA
2004 Mark Prior - 119.2 IP, 4.02 ERA
2005 Kerry Wood - 66 IP, 4.23 ERA
2005 Jason Schmidt - 172 IP, 4.40 ERA
2004 Andy Pettitte - 83 IP, 3.90 ERA

The issue isn't so much a lack of effectiveness (though all operated a bit worse than their established levels of performance) as a lack of IP. The Brewers need 200+ innings of Sheets ball. Last year they managed about 160. This year, I'm beginning to feel as if 156.2 IP from Sheets is optimistic.

The Brewers still put out 4 decent pitchers in Davis, Capuano, Ohka, and Bush, and a temp in the last slot (Rick Helling) would probably work out...if he weren't injured, too. Now their depth will be tested, though they may end up going with Zach Johnson.

The Brewers could also replace Hardy with Hall and not suffer too badly (for a while, at least), but losing Weeks would be critical. It looks like Cirillo would move over to second if both J.J. and Rickie go down, and that's trouble, both defensively and offensively.

Injuries have a way of messing up a team's season, despite its depth.

Friday, March 17th, 2006
I'm a big fan of Baseball Prospectus, a great group of guys always trying to figure out more and more about baseball. Lately, they've added to their normal "Annual" books (which are used to prognosticate the season) a couple of "entry-level" books.

The first is Mind Game: How the Boston Red Sox Got Smart, Won a World Series, and Created a New Blueprint for Winning. Basically, it introduces a lot of concepts that BP has taught me over the last five or six years and places them in the context of the Red Sox season.

To be honest, though, a lot of it sounds like it's giving the Red Sox credit in retrospect. The authors cling too tightly to their argument, thereby making frequent excuses when the Red Sox made poor decisions that worked out, or, more appropriately, made moves that probably had very little with their winning the World Series.

I found it disappointing, mostly because they defend the Red Sox almost universally, and really, the Red Sox didn't make that many good moves that weren't obvious. They scooped up Curt Schilling on a nice gambit. They signed a top notch closer in Foulke, whom they pretty much used like a closer. They kept Pedro from pitching too much. They made sure backups for certain positions were more than just warm bodies, and they made certain that the manager was on the same page as the GM and administation.

Those are all fine moves, but the book discusses minutiae of the season and explains a lot of very basic principles for avid readers of BP. Basically, the book is a series of essays on their theories and evidence for those theories presented in a beginner's format, based on the Red Sox one season.

Then, they wrote Baseball Between the Numbers, which I bought, too. This book basically promises to destroy all the myths those numbnut announcers taught you about baseball. Unfortunately, many of these myths have been debunked or at the least, discussed, by Mind Game already. In sum, if you're not a Red Sox fan, just get Between the Numbers: it's the better, clearer book.

Between the Numbers is split into about 30 essays discussing some of the most prominent beliefs in baseball typically spouted by "insiders" of the game such as announcers, players, ex-players, managers, and coaches. Here are some of the issues they address in one way or another:

The existence of Clutch Hitters,
The usage patterns of Closers,
Evaluating fielding,
Game-calling abilities of Catchers,
New Stadiums' alleged economic benefits for their cities,
Salary caps, and
The so-called Scouts vs. Stats battle.

Many of the essays are on subjects the BP folks have drubbed into their fans' brains a long time ago, but here it is, in one collected edition, and there are a few things that are new. I already knew their stances on New Ballparks, Salary Caps, and Clutch Hitting, but now there's some bonus material.

At any rate, if you want to know - really know - about baseball, and not just fall for all the stupid guff the announcers say, ask to borrow this book from me.

Wednesday, February 22nd, 2006
Fresh off an 81-81 season, everyone is expecting the Brewers to start challenging for the playoffs. To be sure, I'm bullish on their chances for the future, but I want to see more and sustainable improvement this year on the field. First, let's evaluate the big off-season moves.

1B Lyle Overbay Traded to Toronto for RHP Dave Bush, LHP minor leaguer Zach Jackson, and OF Gabe Gross.
No doubt this is a winner. Bush is already major-league ready as a pitcher, and Zach Duke is a fine prospect. Gross is a Left-handed batter who can come off the bench (unlike Cruz and Hart and Hall and most of the others), so he can fill a slot, plus he's not a bad player.

If Jackson turns out to be something more than just staff filler, this trade was a tremendous steal. I love Lyle, but he had to go.

Signed relief RHP Dave Kolb
The local media was pretty excited about this deal, as it re-signs the first great trash-heap pick up that GM Doug Melvin signed. He was also an All Star. I like that it gives the bullpen some depth, and I hope Maddux can turn him around again...but I won't hold my breath. I also wish he were a little cheaper than $2 million.

Traded a fistful of dirt to Toronto for 3B Corey Koskie
This one...I dunno. The Brewers aren't spending that much, but is Koskie really better than in-house options? I'm not sold on Bill Hall, though I think he can be one of the best utility infielders in the business (and his arm makes he sooo jealous), but keeping him around 350 ABs is the way to go, and he's nice insurance if (Lord forbid) Weeks or Hardy go down.

On the other hand, the Brewers had a productive platoon last year in Branyan and Cirillo/Hall, though Branyan and Cirillo both spent time on the DL. On top of that, they're far cheaper than Koskie (though I realize Toronto's picking up a good chunk of the tab). Granted, if you don't like the Branyan/Cirillo combo, why not give Corey Hart a chance? I'm not sure what Koskie adds in this case, especially since he's been nicked up the last couple years and was pretty bad last year.

The trade for Koskie is essentially the type of move that teams like the Brewers shouldn't make - replace a productive, cheap part with a more expensive mediocrity. Plus, I want to see Hart get a chance. He ain't getting any younger.

Monday, October 18th, 2005
Been a while again. The Crew made it to 81-81, with much promise for next season, though I worry about starters #4 & 5 and wonder if Capuano can pitch as well next year and Sheets can stay healthy and what Melvin will get for Overbay.

That said, let's get to the Playoffs:

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 3, New York Yankees 2
The Yanks were handicapped by mediocre series by Jeter and Sheffield, and crushed further by disastrous series by A Rod and Matsui. A Rod gets criticized for pulling down $25 Million a year (as my neighbor so righteously reminded me) and didn't have one RBI in five games. His poor performance in last season's ALDS adds to his rep as a Regular Season Statistics Champion rather than a Great Ballplayer.

Whatever. Yes, he stunk, but he's the reason they beat the Twins so easily last year - you could look it up. He hit the double that turned that series around. The Yanks were beat because of the same old problem - poor pitching and bad luck. (The calls on Cano didn't help, both of which could have gone either way.)

ChiSox 3, BoSox 0
Example 332,477 that there is no such thing as a Clutch Hitter, just clutch hitting. David Ortíz was awful, mucking up several clutch situations, and Jason Varitek wasn't any better. These two are the Heart of the BoSox and they batted poorly with men in scoring position. I hesitate to call them chokers, they just didn't come through. There really aren't clutch hitters. I mean, how can you make yourself play better? I just don't think it's possible. I do think you can choke, though...

Astros 3, Braves 1
Kind of boring except for the last game, which exploited the Achilles Heel of the Braves: no solid relievers. The Ausmus homer was impossibly close, and if he had missed it (nice job to the umps on the call), who knows what happens. Seeing Clemens finish it off was sweet.

Cards 3, Padres 0
Snore.

ChiSox 4, Angels 1
First, kudos to the Angels to pulling it together after a crazy string of canceled and re-scheduled games that cost them about 12 hours sleep and yet they still won.

Second, big boos for David Edding, who tried to re-direct the blame that was deservedly his for messing up the Pierzynski strikeout onto backup catcher Josh Paul. First, (1) he got the call wrong. Then, (2) he made the out sign. Next, rather than believe the catcher (who rolled the ball to the mound) he believed the batter (A.J. Pierzynski, a man who was considered a Clubhouse Cancer by the Twins and the Giants). Ah, 'scuze me. I'll go with the strikeout.

What really kills me about Edding's bogus Game 2 call isn't that he got it wrong, but that people have actually been convinced that it's the RIGHT call. How do you figure? Pierzynski swung and the ball never hit the ground again until Paul rolled it out to the mound. You can credit Pierzynski for running, Ozuna for stealing, and Crede for hitting the double, but if you look at it objectively at all, you'll see that it was the wrong call...for two legitimate reasons (numbered 1 and 2 above).

I read the Chicago Tribune this weekend, and they insisted that "We'll never know" and it was "a controversy that will be unresolved forever." I thought they were nuts. It was so obviously the wrong call that I was shaking my head with jaw agape. (To be fair to the Tribune, they were somewhat tongue-in-cheek in their intentionally biased appraisal...but many people will take the scientists they quoted - all admittedly biased Sox fans - as being honest judges of the event.)

Then, Karla's two uncles started saying it looked like the ball hit the ground. Then her sort-of-uncle Mark said the same. I looked again. Nope the mitt was still between the caught ball and the dirt.

What's going on?

I'll tell you. People WANT to believe it's the right call. It's the same thing that convinces people that George W. Bush cares about everyone and is a Christian. They WANT to believe it. It's hard to believe that Bush does things out of devotion to the Corporations, and until he comes out and says so, guys like Limbaugh and Hannity can steer us towards other reasons. Likewise, we refuse to believe that Edding's call was wrong, and we won't really believe it until he says, "Yup, I fucked up." Because he did, and it may have really mucked up a series.

Really, though, the Angels lost this series. Edding's call is of much more interest to me as the societal phenomena it represented than of what it made the series turn into. Let me put this in a scoreboard type of way:

White Sox Rocked Out, Angels sucked ass.

That's what happened. Konerko was wonderful, Podsednik got patient in games 4 and 5, Everett cut down his swing, Dye was excellent, Pierzynski got away with 2 more close calls, Crede was clutch, and the starting pitching...oh, the starting pitching.

Game 3 was boring. 5-0 lead for much of it (thanks to a bomb from Konerko), Sox win.

Game 4 was boring. Konerko belts another homer in the first inning, the Angels crap out. But...two more awful calls. First, the catcher's interference. Had that been called, it saves 2 outs for the Angels, gives them bases loaded, one out, they're only down 3 at that point. Huge momentum killer. Of course, the catcher who interfered was named Pierzynski. Second call was a pickoff move by Scot Shields. He picked off Podsednik, whose dive back to first was herky jerky and slow. He was called safe. He eventually scored. That's one run of an 8 - 2 victory, I realize, and I hesitate to blame the umps too much, but it's still pretty bad.

Game 5. The umps had a chance to make a bad call in the 8th to help the Angels, calling an obviously safe Pierzynski out. Then they chickened out and he was called safe. I would have loved the irony if they had called him out. I had visions of Pierzynski bitching and moaning back to the dugout and putting on his catching gear, then getting thrown out of the game.

Nope, all he did was clap when he was eventually called safe and then clap some more when Aaron Rowand scored the go-ahead run.

Two further notes on this series: #1) K-Rod has lost it. He refused to throw his fastball or it was wild, and the Sox just sat on his slider. If it looked to be out of the zone, they let it be, and Crede got the game winning RBI off the slider. When they know he has to throw it for a strike, they can at least get wood off of it. K Rod ended up getting roasted for 3 runs.

#2) The Angels hitters were fucking pathetic. You'd think they'd get the message when Guillen has TWO starting pitchers in a row pitch complete games, but they kept on hacking. Vlad was particularly bad, but Figgins, Anderson, Erstad, Kennedy, Finley, and Cabrera were poor as well. Nobody hit well, and Vlad ended up 1 for 20 with an infield single and about 15 ground outs. Just miserable. A Rod went about 2 for 17, but he mixed in a few walks. His poor effort was nothing compared to the hack-rific manners of Vlad.

Guess these numbers: 99, 118, 116, 114. Pitch counts for the four complete games. Very very low. You'd think the Angels might catch on after the first two. Nope. Hack hack hack hack hack. The possibility of facing a rusty bullpen never occurred to the Angels' minds, and Guillen didn't have to worry about it. The Angels were too busy swinging at low sinkers or outside sliders to worry about walks. They took all of 4 the entire 5-game series.

That being said, let me bitch. I don't like the White Sox. I'd have been happier for them if they hadn't gotten away with the Edding's Call, but I still don't like them. I'll go player by player:

Scott Podsednik: Jackass cost the Brewers a few bob last year, refused to take walks, swung for the fences, then got traded to the ChiSox where he unmistakably bumped up his OBP (where was that last year?) and helped garner the title of "genius" for Guillen.

Jermaine Dye: Sucked for two years in Oakland at $10 mil per year and now has a good season?

A.J. Pierzynski: Guy's a jackass mouthing off sonofabitch with an inflated opinion of his own skills.

Carl Everett: Never liked him and his batting location is borderline illegal.

Mark Buehrle: Picked him up once in my fantasy baseball draft. He pitched to the tune of a 5.60 ERA, winning twice. I dump him and he responds with a 2.50 ERA and 10 wins down the stretch, dropping me to fourth and my opponent to first. I have refused to draft him since.

John Garland: Has shown absolutely nothing that indicates he's really this good.

Damaso Marte: Another fantasy bust back in 2004.

Orlando Hernandez, Jose Contreras: How can you like guys that used to be Yankees?

Dustin Hermanson: Another guy that stunk everywhere else and chooses this season to be somewhat useful.

Joe Crede: Starting to get overrated for a couple clutch hits, despite his sub-par .303 OBP.

Freddy Garcia, Tadahito Iguchi, Bobby Jenks: Nothing against these guys.

Paul Konerko: Love this guy.

Kind of hard to root for a team whose players I don't like as much as these, and when you factor in that they claim to win on "Heart" and "Smallball," well, please, let anyone else win it. Guillen, to his credit, doesn't really use the terms Smallball and Heart (He says "Smartball", which sounds pretty good to me), and realizes that his team lives and dies with the home run. They're a pretty Jekyll and Hyde-ish offense, and if they hit a rough spot in the Series, it may doom them, especially if St. Louis finds a way to come back from a 3 to 1 deficit. If Houston faces the Sox, I like the Sox in about 6. If the Cards make it, I'll take the Cards in 5. They have the same type of pitching staff but more patient and consistent hitting.

Houston 3, Cards 1
The ump behind the plate ruined game 4 for the Cardinals, tossing out LaRussa in the 7th and Edmonds in the 8th (in the middle of an at bat!). His call on Edmonds was completely wrong, and then he added to his folly (and asshole factor) by throwing him out of the game. While the ump defended his decision to LaRussa's replacement, they should some camera shots of the other umps. They looked like they couldn't believe what their comrade did. Neither could I.

Not only did that change the situation from two down, bases loaded to two down, first and third, full count, it replaced the scary Jim Edmonds with the much less scary John Rodriguez. Undaunted, Wheeler threw him 3 straight fastballs. Two of which Rodriguez fouled off, then pummeled the third about 428 feet away...to an area of the park 434 feet away. Tavarez made a great catch, Pujols was gunned down the next inning, the 'Stros turned an incredible double play, and the season is almost over for the Cards.

The umps have put their fingerprints all over both League Championship Series, and it's too bad. It's hard to say whose call was worse, the Pierzynski Strikout or the Edmonds toss-out. Both dramatically changed some tight games, though, and that is really just too bad.

Tuesday, September 27th, 2005: Cincinnati at Milwaukee
Finally! At 79-78, the Brewers finally broke the .500 barrier. They drove me nuts before they did it, walking two straight guys with 2 outs and a 4 run lead, but they did it.

And this blew me away: they are the 6th best team in the NL. They are 6th in runs scored and 6th in runs allowed. They have the 6th best Runs Scored/Runs Allowed ratio.

They are in the top half of the National League! How sweet is that? Another year of development for the kids, a bit more luck, some more cash spent...who knows? Playoffs, 2006? I say it's possible.

Monday, September 26th, 2005
All right. It's been over a month and a half. I've been busy working on my dissertation, and despite some crazy games I haven't written anything. My two favorite games were the Brewers win over the Cardinals on Friday night, when they came from behind 6-2 in the 5th against Cy Young candidate Chris Carpenter to net Cappy's 18th win of the season. The other great one was a tie game played by Anaheim against Oakland some time in August. K-Rod threw a pitch that should have been called a strike. Pissed, he slapped at the ball as the catcher threw it back to him and it squeaked past him, about 2/3 of the way to second base. Oakland had a runner on second who bolted home and scored the winning run while a panicky K-Rod tried to get the ball and throw it home. Too late.

I don't particularly like the Angels, and the A's are my second favorite team, so that was fun.

My Brewers Prediction
I had conservatively predicted the Crew to finish with 75 wins, fearing a drop in play by the pitchers, Bill Hall, Brady Clark, Rickie Weeks, and Lyle Overbay to doom them. Instead, despite losing Sheets for the season a few weeks ago, they're still fighting for .500, and have a realistic chance. They've already racked up 77 wins with 7 to go and could possibly get to 82 wins, as their 7 remaining games are against Cincy and Pittsburgh.

As I'd predicted back in July, Lyle slumped a bit, Weeks slumped, and Santos went in the can. But, also as I predicted Jenkins and Hardy really improved, Miller and Lee stayed productive. Clark dipped a tiny bit but has still been really good, and, most importantly, the pitchers (aside from Santos) stayed good. Capuano has remained steady, Davis improved a bit, and Sheets was replaced by the mid-'90's version of Rick Helling.

The two big keys to the bullpen, Wise and Turnbow, have been fantastic. The offense is about the same as before, and, in sum, so has the rotation. So, the team is still at about .500, a mark I hope they reach, but anything can happen in 7 games, so I refuse to make a prediction from here on in.

What about next year?
Next year I see the Brewers improving. They've got some tough choices to make, though. They'll have to trade Overbay - Prince is ready and must be a starter next year. Carlos Lee has a relatively cheap option for next year, and unless they can trade him for something really good, they should keep him. Jenkins should probably be traded, though I'm not sure what they'll get for him. His huge second half has (thankfully!) upped his value and at least gives the Crew the option to trade him and his $7+ million salary.

The rotation has four members set: Capuano, Davis, Sheets, and Ohka. All four are league average or better. I wish they had a hot prospect coming up (hello, Mike Jones), but they don't. They'll have to make due with AAA journeymen like Glover, Helling, Santos, and Obermueller. The Crew has found a decent bullpen all three years under Yost and Maddux, so I trust they'll have another one next year, especially since I see them keeping Wise and (probably) Turnbow. If they can get a team to sell them the farm for Turnbow (Mets? Red Sox?) they may want to take it. Though with aspirations of the playoffs next year, they may want to keep him for at least the first half of next season.

The biggest decisions depend on the outfield: they need to decide on a set of three guys from Corey Hart, Jenkins, Lee, Clark, and Nelson Cruz, whom they acquired in the Keith Ginter trade. I'd like to see a starting spot for Hart, so they've got to trade Jenkins or Lee. Cruz could be a solid 4th OF, just in case, and Hart can be stretched to play center.

If I were Melvin, here's next year's lineup:
1. Clark, CF
2. Hardy, SS
3. Fielder, 1B
4. Lee, LF
5. Weeks, 2B
6. Hall/Branyan platoon, 3B
7. Hart, RF
8. Miller, C
9. Pitcher

I believe that's a solid lineup, especially should Weeks and Hardy improve. It's a little bit light on Left-Handed hitting (which may be an argument for keeping Jenkins), but a couple lefties on the bench should take care of it.

Overbay can be traded to the Mets or Red Sox for a decent pitching prospect or two, or a semi-proven starter. The bullpen will be fine, and there's been so much change in there under Melvin/Yost from year to year that I'm not going to predict who will be in it, though I think Wise, De La Rosa, Turnbow, and Eveland will make it, along with Santana.

The Cubs have begun to fade. Their lineup is getting older and Derrek Lee probably doesn't have another 2005 in him. They also mis-spend money on jokers like Neifi Perez and Todd Hollandsworth, giving too much playing time to OBP sinks like Corey Patterson. Kerry Wood and Mark Prior have lost their Uber-Pitcher glow.

Houston is still pretty good, but I wonder if Clemens can pull off another 2005, and I always wonder about a braintrust that puts too much faith in guys like Brad Ausmus and the aging Craig Biggio. I see Ensberg dropping a bit (though I'm really glad he finally got a chance to play this year: God bless you, Phil Garner).

The Cards are going to be a force. The pitching staff is solid, the lineup may be getting old, but they have a guy in there named Albert Pujols that does for the Cards (and their good lineup) what a guy named Bonds used to do for a crappy lineup: score mega-runs. I don't see the Crew passing those guys, and it will tough to get a wildcard. The Brewers will need luck and the awesome, "Who can I pull from the trash heap and make a great player?" skills of Doug Melvin.

Next year, I believe, will be another step in the right direction. I've agreed with the Melvin/Yost braintrust almost 100% of the time, so I have full faith in their abilities. Melvin makes good trades, keeps the bottom line in good order, and yet we have about a .500 club. Yost is a good manager whoe makes good decisions based on both long-term and short-term goals. About the only thing I haven't liked in this group is that they took High School pitcher Mark Rogers last year in the draft. High School pitchers tend to bust (see Mike Jones), and I would have preferred a solid College pitcher instead (see Ben Sheets, Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, etc.). Ryan Braun will hopefully pan out (he did well in the Pioneer League before getting a minor injury that shelved him), and the gap at 3rd will be filled.

Long term, they just need more starting pitching prospects and a future catcher. If they can make that happen, we may be on the cusp of an Oakland A's type run.

Monday, August 8th, 2005: Chicago at NY Mets
I've been thinking about this for a few days - since the Brewers played the Mets, in fact, and I believe that the Mets have an oddly powerful offense. Consider:

#1 - Jose Reyes, a speedy, second-year hacking shortstop
#2 - Miguel Cairo, a mediocre (in every way) veteran second baseman
#3 - Carlos Beltran, a young veteran, switch-hitting, speedy, powerful centerfielder who has been disappointing
#4 - Cliff Floyd, a veteran, slow, power-hitting, patient leftie having a good year
#5 - David Wright, a patient, power-hitting righty rookie
#6 - Mike Cameron, a slick fielding, good running, patient, medium power veteran righty
#7 - Mike Piazza, the greatest hitting catcher ever coming to the end of his days
#8 - Whoever's playing first base out of Doug Mientkewicz or Marlon Anderson.

For whatever reason, the Mets can't find a first baseman that can hit...and that is what's killing them. Still, there is a nice set of skills in this offense, and they should put up some runs (they're 6th in the league and play in a pitcher's park). They are a bit right-hand heavy, though, and may not fair well against power righties.

Actually, Jose Reyes would be a perfect #8 hitter, but Willie Randolph insists on batting the kid leadoff. His .303 OBP is what's really killing the Mets.

Anyway, this team strikes me as an interesting offense because of the different approaches to batting each player in the lineup has. Floyd and Wright are similar, but bat on different sides of the plate. Cameron is more patient (and will bunt for a hit once in a while). Piazza always takes the first pitch, but doesn't walk that much. Cairo is completely average, and Beltran has the talent to do anything at the plate. Reyes is a lot like Alfonso Soriano, but without the power. Where Soriano (or Vlad Guerrero) could hit an ankle-high ball for a home run, Reyes will hit it for a triple (or, usually, a groundout).

The Brewers never got comfortable against this lineup. In fact, in 6 games against the Mets, they gave up 40 runs. Compare this rate (6.7 runs per game) to the rate of runs they've given up against all their other opponents:

Team # of Games Runs per Game vs. Crew

Los Angeles 6 6.3

Florida 4 5.5

Cincinnati 6 5.3

NY Yankees 3 5.3

St. Louis 10 5.1

Toronto 3 4.3

Houston 5 4.2

Minnesota 6 4.2

Chicago Cubs 12 4.0

Atlanta 3 4.0

Philadelphia 9 4.0

San Diego 3 4.0

Pittsburgh 11 3.5

San Francisco 7 3.4

Tampa Bay 3 3.3

Washington 8 3.0

Arizona 3 2.3

Colorado 3 1.0

So far this year, the Mets' O has given the Crew the most trouble. The Dodgers are surprisingly high on this list, but the Brewers caught them when they were red hot and won't get a chance at them without J.D. Drew and Milton Bradley.

Tuesday, July 26th, 2005: Arizona at Milwaukee
The Crew really miffed me a couple times tonight, though they pulled it out in the end to win going away, 7-2.

In the second, Carlos Lee doubled, then Jenkins hit a grounder to second, moving him to third. Bill Schroeder got very excited about Jenkins doing the right thing. Who's up next? Russ Branyan. With Russ, you might as well be on first base, because he's either going to walk (and set up Damian Miller for a double play), strikeout, or home run. He strikes out. With a Damian Miller strikeout forthcoming, Brandon Webb escapes with no damage.

Some other stuff...Capuano hasn't been all that great lately, and kind of meandered his way through five mediocre innings. Part of the problem was that he didn't through strikes to Chris Snyder (.226 BA) or Jose Cruz (.214 BA, .182 vs. Lefties). Why he walked these guys is beyond me, but Snyder actually ended up scoring after the Hardy error in the 3rd.

I'm further miffed because Ben Sheets walked the inestimable Jose Cruz, Jr. Three(!) times yesterday. He ended up scoring both of their runs.

In the 7th, the Brewers finally broke through on Webb, with Jenks hitting a solo shot, then Branyan walking on a close pitch. Damian Miller was up next, and Schroeder was wondering if Rich Dauer (Yost had been ejected) would have him bunt, as the score was 2-2. Schroeder said, essentially, "Let him hit," because he likes the right side (and with Branyan on first there was a huge hole on the right) or he drills it down the left field line. Sure enough, Miller smokes a double down the left field line and the rout was on. Big thumbs up to Dauer and Schroeder. Schroeder always seems right on the money when he scouts the Brewers.

Finally, there is no pitcher more fun to watch than Matt Wise. He made the D'backs look positively stupid tonight for 2 innings, gathering 4 whiffs. They just look confused. When they expected a fastball, he threw the change, and when they expected the change, they watched the fastball whiz by them, missed the change anyway, or barely fouled it off.

Monday, July 25th, 2005: Arizona at Milwaukee
Matt Wise got a special interview tonight because his wife had his second child. After the normal "How are you and the wife doing?" bit, they asked Matt to do his Derrick Turnbow impersonation. Matt looked a bit embarrassed, then started to do it. He pulled his hat way down over his eyes like Turnbow, then started talking in a really high voice, "Hey man, what's going on, you know..." It was hilarious.

Turnbow Wise

Wednesday, July 20th, 2005: Milwaukee at St. Louis
All right, I'm beginning to believe. That may sound odd after the Crew lost to the Cards for the 2nd time in three meetings, but they outplayed them tonight. Ben was rockin', except for a "meatball" to Albert Pujols that went for 2 runs and a tip of the hat solo shot he gave up (a shoulder high fastball!) to rookie John Rodriguez.

The big story is that the Crew outplayed the Cards tonight, but some more "clutch pitching" or "choke hitting" cost the Brewers the game. Big Ben was only at 79 pitches through 6 when he came out in the hope of getting offense.

The Brewers left 6 guys in scoring position with 2 out. One was Ben's, so we'll ignore that one, but still, that's pretty raunchy. The Cards, in contrast, left 1. Same old story here, even with the Cards: play tough with the other team, get one unlucky break, then fail to get in the runs. I'm going to have to run a check on the Brewers run efficiency. I have a feeling it's really bad.

Tuesday, July 19th, 2005: Milwaukee at St. Louis
I gave up on the Brewers tonight. They were down 4-0 in the bottom of the 4th and the Cardinals had runners on 1st and 3rd, nobody out. I turned off the TV and read a book. Stupid me. They came back with a Bill Hall double in the top of the 8th to take a 5-4 lead.

Yost played to win this game, pulling all the tricks. Infield in when Davis was in trouble in the 4th, pulling Davis in the 5th, pinch-hitting, etc., etc. And it worked. It's not always going to work, but Yost sent a message to the team and the fans: I'm tired of losing. Last year, we would have suffered through another blow out. This year, Yost wants that .500 record, he wants his team to want it, and he wants the fans to expect it.

Still, couldn't the Brewers have knocked Trent Durrington in in the top of the 9th? A lead-off double followed by a Brady Clark sacrifice. Weeks whiffs. Overbay whiffs. Turnbow made the point moot by getting Pujols, Rolen, and Grudzielanek 1-2-3, but still...

Monday, July 18th, 2005: Milwaukee at St. Louis
Reality hit hard tonight, as a dose of poor baseball (by Milwaukee) and great baseball (by St. Louis) resulted in a big 11-4 smackdown. An error in the first inning gave the Cards an extra run. Then, after Jenkins ties the game in the 2nd and Santos get through the Cards 1-2-3, the Brewers get men on second and third, 1 out. Jenkins is intentionally walked to pitch to Hall. Hall (of course) hits a 1-1 pitch to Eckstein, who manages to start a double play after fumbling the ball.

Game Over.

The Brewers ended up leaving 15 guys on base. The Cards left 14 (and still scored 11), so I'm not going to say we deserved to win, but 15!??! Man, when is this nonsense going to stop? There's no way the Crew can be competitive against the Cards without getting these guys in somehow. It's frustrating.

I want to add that the Cards get the corner calls. There were some pitches called balls for the Cardinal batters (especially Pujols, Edmonds, and Walker) that were called strikes for the Brewer batters. Not to bail Santos out too much (he lost his concentration in the 3rd inning), but a couple of 2-2 counts were turned into 3-1 counts because of these borderline calls to the Cards. In a closer game I'd care a lot more. After tonight, I'm hoping to win one game and praying for a split.

New York Yankees at Texas
Kevin Brown got slapped around again, but the Yankee bullpen (anchored by Sturtze and Rivera) held on to win. This win, coupled with a Red Sox loss to the Devil Rays, puts the Evil Team back in first place. *Sigh* It was fun while it lasted.

Sunday, July 17th, 2005: Washington at Milwaukee
I didn't watch the game, but was delighted to see Tomo Ohka (whom the Nats traded to Milwaukee for Junior Spivey) outdueled his replacement, Ryan Drese. Ohka went 7 IP, 3 Runs, 0 BB, 6 K and got the win. Drese: 3 IP, 5 Runs, 1 BB, 0 K. A fellow on baseball prospectus argued (and I told him that I felt he skewed the stats to prove his point) that the Ohka for Spivey trade was better for the Nationals, but a now-injured Spivey is riding the pine while Ohka has put up decent numbers for the Crew. The win for Ohka, then, was a defense of my pride. Thanks, pal.

New York Yankees at Boston
Not really much to say, a pretty boring 5-1 victory for the Yankees, although I wonder where the hell this verson of Al Leiter was all year. After sucking it up in Miami all season, he comes into Fenway and turns into Sandy Frickin' Koufax.

The true story of the Yankees is how dull they are to watch when they bat. They ascribe to the school of plate discipline, but it's boring, because they're all fanatics about it. Jeter's fun to watch, but every other player in the line up (except Cano, whose still a rookie, and Womack, who stinks) all come to the plate with the same, boring ass approach: wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, smoke it for a home run.

This gets incredibly dull. Sheffield, A-Rod, Matsui, Posada, Giambi, and Williams. Every one of them does it. Giambi is getting his stroke back, so pitchers aren't giving him anything, and he simply doesn't swing at anything that he can't hit a mile. Williams is doing the same thing, but he can't hit.

Anyway, I bring this up today because Wakefield makes them swing. When he gets that knuckleball across, as he did today after the 2nd inning, the Yankees start hacking and they generally look pretty bad. It's the one pitcher that they can't really hang their patience mantra on consistently, because when the knuckler's working, they've got to swing, and they look as bad as anyone else when they miss it.

Now let me say this: part of the reason the Yankees are so boring is not because they have a patient approach, it's because they have a patient approach AND they're awesome. If you said you'd trade me the production of Matsui, Posada, A-Rod, Giambi or Sheffield for Carlos Lee, I'd take any of them (especially if I could play Posada at catcher), except maybe Giambi, because I'm not sure he's back all the way yet. The opposing pitcher's are so scared to make a mistake against these guys that they pick at the edges all the time. Even Ben Sheets, who held them to one run back in June, gave up 5 walks to them. He has 14 walks allowed in 87 innings against all other teams (Barely over 1 per game started).

So, yeah, they're a boring offensive club (if you don't like them), but the opposing pitchers help make them boring.

Saturday, July 16th, 2005: New York Yankees at Boston
A comment by Tim McCarver validated my frustrations with yesterday's game. Bernie Williams was batting with a 3-0 count, as Matt Clement was suddenly having trouble finding the strike zone. Clement threw a ball very low and the ump called it a strike. That really upset Bernie and he swung at a borderline pitch and then struck out. McCarver said, "A call like that can change the whole game." Then he went on to discuss a scenario where the Yankees lose because of that one call. Of course, they won, 7-4, so the point was moot. Still, there were a lot of calls like that pulled by Davidson yesterday against the Brewers. Maybe it's a "gamer" thing, and Sheets should have started hitting the corner like Livan did, but the Nationals got a helluva lot more mileage out of those strikes that were really balls than the Brewers did.

Washington at Milwaukee
Another odd game. It looked like it was going to be the Brewers game, as with two outs, Jenkins was wild pitched over to second on a 0-2 count, then Miller lined a single to score him. "That's called manufacturing runs," said Bill Schroeder, and Daren Sutton admitted that on a win streak, "Sometimes you've got to be lucky." Bill and Daren are much less mainstream than most guys. When Bill mentioned that the Nationals were 24-10 in one-run games (prior to Friday's game), he said, "You can't keep pushing the envelope like that. At some point the law of averages is going to get you." Huzzah for Bill! Most announcers just say that they are a gritty, gutsy team, or some bull.

In the top of the second, Vinny Castilla hit a double (hate that guy. When I told my wife I hated him, she asked why. I said, he's like a guy at work that gets the good jobs and all the glory despite sitting at his desk and taking naps. He's a mediocre player who gets paid and credited with the work of a great player). The double was almost a home run and almost an out, so Brady Clark compromised and gave him a double as he leapt up and pulled it down, actually having the ball in his glove a second before it hit the top of the wall and bounced back onto the field. Preston Wilson had been running like a fiend and scored. Had Brady managed to catch it he would have had Wilson doubled up at first. That frickin' close.

I should also say that Preston Wilson (and first base coach Don Buford) complained immediately about Capuano's pickoff move. Schroeder says "It's a borderline balk move" and he's been called for it once. That chirping might have distracted him a bit to give Castilla something to hit.

In the 4th, the Nationals did the same thing: Preston Wilson gets a walk on a bad pitch call (the second ball was easily a strike, but the ump, to be fair, missed the outside corner all game), then is knocked in on a Castilla double.

At one point, Bill mentioned Russ Branyan and he had shaved his head. Bill said, "If you're gonna shave your head, you've got to do it earlier in the summer." Sure enough, Russ' head was white as snow where his hair used to be. Looked funny as heck.

Jose Vidro shucked a bat into the stands in the 3rd, and Bill didn't like the guy that grabbed it. He ran up from two rows back and grabbed the bat from someone else who had reached behind his seat and grabbed it first (it landed in some empty seats). Bill and Daren demanded an investigation (though Darin was cool with the guy in the green shirt that ended up with it) and after an interview, it was revealed that the guy went for it "for his son's birthday." How old is your son, asked Bob. "Nineteen." Bill thought that was ridiculous. You don't get a bat for a nineteen year old. You get one for a nine year old. So, to make up to the people that got gypped, Bill and Darin gave them a bunch of food from the press box as well as a bunch of souvenirs, like a baseball signed by Bill and Darin (which Bob said, "That's worth a lot.") and a Ben Sheets camouflage jersey.

In the third, after a Clark leadoff double, Yost had Weeks bunt. I hated the idea. Weeks made a great bunt (and almost beat it out), but Overbay, who was clearly overmatched by Loaiza, walked, Lee popped out and Jenkins whiffed. I realize you want to have the kid learn his fundamentals, but let him knock Clark in. The Brewers have been pretty bad at getting in guys from third all year.

Jose Guillen, who doesn't believe that strikes on the inside half of the plate are really strikes, got frustrated with an inside call in the 6th inning (to make the count 1-2). In fact, he really argued with the ump about it, who let Jose blow off steam for a while without throwing him out. Jose then hit a weak ass single after an 0 for 10 string against the Brewers. The ball went to Hardy, but Hall slid about a foot in front of Hardy and distracted him. It would have been a tough play anyway, and Hardy bobbled it. Then, just when Guillen thinks he's getting off the snide, Capuano picks him off (with his "B" move). Disgusted, Guillen walked slowly slowly slowly back to the dugout.

After a Castilla walk, Gary Bennett hit a sure double play ball that bounced off second base and went into the outfield, not only assuring that Bennett would have a single but that Castilla would get to third.

With 2 outs, the laughable Christan Guzman came up and was called out on a borderline inside strike. He flipped out (just like Guillen), and after being given a chance to walk away, Guzman threw his helmet, bat, and guards in the vicinity of the ump and got tossed.

In the bottom of the 6th, the Brewers tied the game on some luck. With Jenkins on first, Bill Hall, who's been hitting rockets and nice hits all series for outs, hits a soft pop up that lands just outside the reach of Vidro and just inside the first baseline for a hit, advancing Jenkins to third. Then, with 2 outs, Miller strikes out, but the pitch goes wild, he takes first, and Jenkins scores. I thought it was a good omen, but then a frustrated Guillen ripped a 2 strike pitch off Bottalico in the 7th to center (after a wild pitch) and knocked in two to provide a two-run lead (and eventual victory).

Friday, July 15th, 2005: Washington at Milwaukee
Crazy game tonight. First, the umpire behind the plate, Bob Davidson, was giving a Greg Maddux/Tom Glavine strike zone out tonight. It was somewhat inconsistent, and it was really driving the Brewers hitters nuts. They were turning their heads or grumbling a lot. Livan Hernandez really took advantage of it, as a ton of borderline pitches were called strikes. Probably 3/4 of them were balls. Weeks was rung up on a bad one in the 3rd, costing the Crew a lead-off walk. Hall and Branyan got particularly bad calls on them in the 6th, giving Russ a strikeout and taking Billy off his game. Carlos Lee also had a bad one called on him in the 8th.

The Weeks call had a big impact, as Weeks stood there for a second, unbelieving - it was probably Davidson's worst call of the game - and said a few things, but never really looked at the ump. Davidson, however, kept yakking at Rickie, as if he was trying to provoke the rookie into turning around and chirping. Ned Yost didn't like that. Yost earned more respect for me as a manager tonight; he ran out to Davidson, absolutely furious, and called him out for not dropping the matter and trying to draw Rickie into getting thrown out. The ump's job, as Bill Schroeder said, is to ignore the player - not keep things going. Davidson was obviously trying to instigate something and Yost lost it, as well he should have. There's no place in baseball for an ump that tries to provoke a player.

With the Brewers down a frustrating 3-2 in the bottom of the 5th, Chad Moeller hit a shot that bounced off the top of the wall...and came back into play for an incredibly unlucky double. Then, after a high, out of control fastball to Ben Sheets, who was about to bunt, Brian Schneider picked Moeller off second. Ugh. Rally over.

Next, in an inceasingly frustrated Jose Guillen grounded into a double play to kill a Nationals rally in the 7th, with runners on first and third. Ben has, as I guessed a few weeks ago, started to throw a 2-seam fastball, which sinks. This helps explain his falling K rate, but it did get him out of a jam today. It's much easier to get one groundball than a strikeout then another out.

Then, vindication. In the bottom of the 8th, with frustration mounting, Carlos Lee batted with 2 outs. He quickly went to 0-2 on another terrible call by the home ump. Carlos cursed and took a quick walk to calm himself down. Then, after a ball, he jacked a nothing fastball into the left field seats. 3 to 3. Carlos was still pissed, though, as the cameras showed him bitching about the call to Rich Dauer in the dugout.

Next batter, another borderline strikeout call, this time at the expense of a frustrated Geoff Jenkins. Sigh. You can't win 'em all.

The game couldn't have ended better if I'd written the ending myself. With 1 out and Chris Magruder on third, Weeks on first, Robinson called in Mike Stanton, Proven Veteran and Champion from those Yankees teams. Before he throws a pitch he is called for a balk when he catches Weeks off the base. Frank Robinson hated the call (understandably. Who wants to lose on a balk?) and they complained, but it was sweet that a borderline call from the first baseman made up for all of Davidson's B.S. behind the plate all game long. Cheers to the Crew for pulling this thing out!

Hector Carrasco
Just on another thought...At one point, Hector Carrasco came into the game and survived a scoreless inning (though he gave up a walk). They flashed his stats, and they are odd (after Friday's game):

34.1 IP, 22 K/12 BB, .207 BAA. That .207 BAA wouldn't be so odd...if he that K number was about 40. Instead, he's not striking anybody out AND they're only hitting .207 against him? Sounds fluky. Normally, someone with that poor of a K/BB ratio is going to get smoked. Hector is skating on thin ice. Consider others on his team with a similar K/9 IP ratio (5.60) all have more hits than innings pitched. Hector has more Innings (34.1) than hits (24).

Thursday, July 14th, 2005: Washington at Milwaukee
This one had all the hallmarks of a typical Brewer loss. First inning: men on 1st and 3rd, nobody out. # of runs scored: 0. Despite outhitting the Nats 9 to 4 through 7 innings, the Brewers were stuck in a tie with them, 2 to 2. Thanks to a 3-2, 2 out double with 2 guys on from Damian Miller, though, the Brewers pulled it out. Carlos Lee was downright awful, stranding guys left and right, leaving 6 guys wondering what happened to their RBI man.

2 run games
Knock on wood...The Brewers, at one point, were 0-9 in games decided by two runs. Later, they were 1-13. At that moment, I wrote an email to Jim Baker, who created Baker's Axiom: "As soon as you notice something odd happening it will stop." I begged Jim to notice this odd and unluckily terrible record for the Brewers and he promised to notice it, though he warned me that Baker's Axiom had not worked on Scott Podsednik, who has yet to hit a triple or home run this season after amassing 7 three and 12 four baggers last year.

Still, I think - or is it hope? - Baker's Axiom is working (knock on wood again!). Since their 1-13 start, the Brewers are now 4-1 in games decided by two runs, having won their last three, including Thursday's 4-2 victory over the Nationals.

Twins in Turmoil
The Twins, I'm afraid, are finally in deep doo-doo.

The White Sox are showing no signs of letting up, and, to be honest, even if they do start to slip, it will be difficult for them to lose a 10 game lead. The White Sox have slightly better pitching and a slightly better offense. The Twins made a move, though, the brought in...Bret Boone. That's right, the .234 hitting Bret Boone. Yup. 7 Home Runs.

The Twins nonsensical crap keeps getting worse. Then, for a team struggling to score runs, Gardenhire all but announced that the inimitable Nick Punto will be the everyday man at third rather than Mike Cuddyer. Though Cuddyer is struggling this year, he's 26 and has shown some sock in the past. Punto is 27 and has not shown any ability to hit.

The Twins simply don't have it any more. They coasted on the strength of a weak division and some excellent pitching. The pitching has come down to earth somewhat (especially Radke and Santana; Silva will start slipping soon, too). The offense is really pretty pedestrian, full of average hitters up and down the order. No regular on the team nets a Runs per Game average over .1, with the exception of Glenn Williams (in only 43 plate appearances) and Matt LeCroy, who has only managed 153 plate appearances and is too fat for Gardenhire to put on the field often.

This team is in big trouble. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau will improve, but the rest of these guys are getting up in age and weren't that great to begin with. Shannon Stewart is 31 and is a mediocre bat in Left Field. Torii Hunter is about to turn 30. Jacques Jones has been overrated for years and is already 30. All three of these guys are about average. Don't expect them to turn it around. Lew Ford is 28 and already had his career year. Luis Rodriguez? Nick Punto? Luis Rivas? All weak hitting infielders.

Perhaps Bret Boone will break back out in a Twins uniform (and Gardenhire put him and his .300 OBA, .385 SLG in the three spot as if in a desperate ploy to prove it), but would you count on a 36 year old whose last 870 at bats put him at a .244 BA, .310 OBP, and a .409 SLG? THIS is the guy who will lead you to the promised land?

Might as well stick with Punto: he's at .269 BA, .339 OBP, and .400 SLG. That's 20 points more of OPS. But who's counting? (Not the statistics-ignorant Twins).

Tuesday, July 12th, 2005: All Star Game
I was just happy to see that Kenny Rogers was the first AL pitcher to give up some runs. That was a delight. I was also sad to see Carlos Lee and Dontrelle Willis do poorly.

Mariano Rivera
I watched this game with two buddies, Stu and Scott, and Stu and I reminisced about the "Has Mariano lost it?" freakout fest that occurred at the beginning of the season, when Mo blew back to back saves against the Red Sox. Joe Sheehan on baseball prospectus did a great job putting out that particular flame (which included stats like "Mo blew 4 straight saves against the Sox!") so I'm not going to get too nuts about it here.

Suffice to say, the greatest one-trick pony ever, Senior Mariano Rivera, seems to be fine. He's got his lowest ERA ever at 1.01.

Sunday, July 10th, 2005: Milwaukee at Atlanta
I was out of town and missed the Saturday game, but caught the end of this one, which was a pleasant but difficult 8-4 win. Pleased to see Ben Sheets get the victory against the Braves, though it's a bit disappointing that his strikeout rate is still lower than last year.

Ben Sheets, 2004: 10.03 K/9 IP
Ben Sheets, 2005: 7.97 K/9 IP

Still, his rate is better than pre-2004, which topped out at 7.06 K/9 IP. His pre-dizziness ratio this season was 8.23 K/9 IP, so unless the dizziness has been mildly bothering him all season, I don't think that's the reason. Maybe he's throwing his sinking fastball more? If so, the stats aren't reflecting it. His Groundball to Flyball ratio is at its worst ever, 0.77 (compared to a career 1.27).

On to the game today...I was glad to see Capuano get a win despite having a shaky game. I guess he "knows how to win!"

Ned Yost
Mark Attanasio and Doug Melvin are meeting today to discuss (among other things, I suppose) whether or not they should extend Ned Yost's contract. At first glance, a couple things in Yost's favor are that he had a great first half last season and he improved on the 2002 season from hell with arguably a worse roster. But, on the bad side of the ledger are things like the worse post-All Star game collapse MLB history last year (22-53!) and a losing record this season.

There are a couple things that drive me nuts about Yost. I think sometimes he does hit and runs and base stealing with guys not up to the task or in odd situations. Sometimes, of course, it's good to do things on gut instinct (a la Leo Durocher). Most of the time, it isn't. Trying to steal 2nd base with Brady Clark when there are two outs and a 2-run lead with Lyle Overbay up is fine strategy, even should it fail. Lyle (and his .386 OBP) would lead off the next inning. Stealing a base with Carlos Lee up isn't as good.

I really hope they keep Yost. He's from the Bobby Cox school of merging young talent in with established talent, delegating responsibility and trusting his coaches, and playing guys only if they're performing. Last year, Podsednik struggled and he found himself benched a lot. This year, he gave Fielder a lot of playing time for a while despite the presence of Overbay, he's benched Jenkins when he was unproductive, and he's pretty much handled the rotation pretty well, despite the disappearance of Ben Sheets. Melvin helped out by scooping up Tomo Ohka for a guy they didn't need (Spivey).

When I watch the Brewers, there's really not a player getting regular time that shouldn't...except J.J. Hardy, who should be sent back down to AAA. Still, it's not like J.J. is Lenny Harris or Neifi Perez. He's a young guy, a possible foundation for the future. While Jenkins was struggling, I was personally hoping they'd bring up Krynzel to play, but he didn't make it, but I'm not sure he'll be all that great anyway.

But above all, I give Yost credit for his handling of the pitching staff. Everyone is effective and the bullpen has been excellent despite being a bunch of no-names and suffering the loss of the very fine Mike Adams. Matt Wise, Derek Turnbow, and Ricky Bottalico have been excellent. Plus, the whole group of them are cheap. The composite cost of the bullpen (including these four plus fireballer Julio Santana, project Jorge De La Rosa, old lefty Tommy Phelps, and long man Wes Obermueller) is a whopping $2.8 million. When you consider that the Yankees are paying the recently demoted Mike Stanton $4 Million for his 2000 Yankees special gloss and a 7.07 ERA, Ned and Doug deserve a great deal of credit for the bullpen work, especially since they traded Dan Kolb (and his $3.4 Million salary and 5.56 ERA) to the Braves for Jose Capellan and Alex Zumwalt. Capellan had to switch to the bullpen and looks great so far (in about 20 IP) and Zumwalt looks like, well, he looks like typical middler relief filler from what I can tell. Still, Capellan is just about major league ready and will certainly have a better career from here on out than Kolb, whose magical 2004 is screaming, "FLUKE!"

Friday, July 8th, 2005: Milwaukee at Atlanta
On Wednesday, the Brewers lost a game in which they had no business winning, but almost won it. Today, against the Braves, was the other side of the coin. The Brewers outplayed Atlanta all day, getting men on base all game long, but lost 2-1 when Julio Santana was put in with the game in doubt. (Why on earth can't they hit guys like Jorge Sosa?) Not to make too much of this, but it's frustrating when the Crew should win close games and don't and shouldn't win close games and don't (Does that make sense?). It's one of the things that sets them apart from teams like the Nationals.

Bill Schroeder had a gem of a story tonight. He was discussing Kelly Johnson of the Braves, and how his 45 errors at shortstop in one minor league season resulted in move to the Outfield. This reminded him of a fellow he played with named Willie Lozado, whom they called "Elmer," because after every game in the next day's box scores there'd be an entry next to his name that looked like this:

E - Lozado.

Something else that happened in tonight's game: Andruw Jones hit a broken bat double off Doug Davis (who looked great against an all-right-handed line-up except for the aforementioned Kelly Johnson) that flew to within about 20' of the warning track. I've never seen a broken bat hit go that far - it must have flew about 330 feet.

Thursday, July 7th, 2005: Milwaukee at Florida
Florida salvaged a split as I suffered through the game via GameCast. The big blow was a bases loaded pinch hit at the hands of Carlos Delgado just after a rain delay. The Brewers were down 5-3 at the time. Bottalico intentionally walked Alex Gonzalez to load the bases (something I wasn't too thrilled with), then LoDuca batted and popped out or something. Then, Carlos Delgado came up and smacked the ball a long way.

The rain delay, without a doubt, came at a horrible time, and had an incredible impact on the game. Had the game not been interrupted (it was the fifth inning), Scuffy Moehler undoubtedly would have batted for himself after the Lo Duca pinch hit. Of course, Santos would have still been in there, and he wasn't pitching so hot, but it was kind of bad luck to hit the delay like that. Santos wasn't pitching so well, though, and I'm not sure it would have mattered.

Victor Santos
Victor has replaced Benny as the bad luck guy. After an 11-12 season last year with a 4.97 ERA, Victor has a 2-9 record this year, despite a 3.50 ERA. Last year, Ben had a 2.70 ERA but only a 12-14 record. This season, Ben has roughly the same ERA as Victor but is 4-6, a .400 win %, much better than Victor's .182.

So, does Victor pitch "just well enough to lose"? Both wins came in 6-1 victories for the crew - games where the score wasn't tight. Most other games have been tight this year. How about last year's wins? Were they all blowouts?

Date Innings Pitched Run Support Runs Allowed Win, Loss, ND

May 4 5.0 6 0 WIN

May 9 5.0 1 3 ND

May 14 7.0 0 0 ND

May 19 5.0 4 2 WIN

May 25 4.0 1 4 LOSS

May 30 6.0 1 5 LOSS

June 4 5.0 3 1 WIN

June 9 6.0 7 2 WIN

June 15 7.0 2 0 WIN

June 20 3.0 1 4 LOSS

June 26 6.1 7 2 WIN

July 1 6.0 10 4 WIN

July 6 6.2 4 2 WIN

July 11 5.2 5 4 ND

July 16 6.0 3 2 WIN

July 21 6.0 0 1 LOSS

July 26 7.0 1 3 LOSS

July 31 5.0 1 4 LOSS

August 5 3.2 3 9 LOSS

August 11 4.2 1 7 LOSS

August 17 6.1 3 1 WIN

August 22 6.2 4 4 ND

August 27 4.2 0 6 LOSS

September 1 6.0 2 1 ND

September 11 2.1 0 8 LOSS

September 16 4.0 0 4 LOSS

September 21 6.0 6 2 WIN

September 26 4.0 4 6 LOSS

Okay, now let's break it down a bit more. How many times did he leave the game with the Brewers...
...down 4 or more - 6 times
...down 3 - 3 times
...down 2 - 3 times
...down 1 - None
...game tied - 1 time
...up 1 - 3 times
...up 2 - 5 times
...up 3 - 0 times
...up 4 or more - 5 times

So, in close games (2 or fewer runs difference), Victor left the game with a lead 8 times, had 1 tie, and was down 3 times. It seems to me that he was pretty good in "gut check" games. If Victor really is "good enough to lose," one would expect this trait to occur over time. Here? No dice. He's pitching in rotten luck.

Wednesday, July 6th, 2005: Milwaukee at Florida
I missed most of the game, and looking purely at the stats, it looks like the Crew had no business being in this game. They had 4 hits, the Marlins had 13. The Brewers struck out 22 times and 28 straight batters were retired at one point. They had 3 errors to 0 for the Marlins...yet they still almost won, and would have (probably) if Carlos Lee hadn't misplayed Juan Encarnacion's 1-out, 8th inning hard single into a triple.

Had the Brewers won this game, they undoubtedly would have stole a win. They had no business winning it, and if they had, it's like converting a loss into a win. They haven't won many of those this year - they tend to have trouble winning even when they do outplay the other team. My dad always said that it shows the mark of a great team when they play poorly and still win.

That reminds me of a game when the Brewers did just that. Back in 1995, the Crew played Detroit at County Stadium on a muggy, awful night. The Brewers were outplayed all game, but managed a 5-run fifth inning (off a 2-out Darryl Hamilton grand slam - an at bat that began with an 0-2 count before you could sneeze) and held on for a win, despite a home run by Cecil Fielder and a shaky first batter by Mike Fetters. Those are the fun games - the ones you know you should never have won, but did.

(By the way, I just looked this game up on Retrosheet.org. My memory of the game - played on August 11, 1995, is nearly perfect. The 5 runs did happen in the fifth inning, Hamilton hit the slam, Fielder jacked one. The Brewers were outplayed - out-hit 9 to 8, plus there was an error. It's interesting to look back at the players on both sides of the ball back then: Chad Curtis, Travis Fryman, and Juan Samuel - playing first base - all suited up for the Tigers, with Lou Whitaker pinch hitting. For the Brewers, there were a ton of guys from the Garner years that I forgot: Hamilton, Jaha, Mieske, Valentin, Listach.)

Errors -> Hits
Bill Schroeder has really been angry at the scorers for the Marlins. Jeff Conine hit a grounder right at Bill Hall that bounced up, hit him in the chest and dribbled away. Conine beat out the throw and was credited with a hit. Schroeder was incensed, and felt that it was an error. "There's no room for that kind of homerism in the game," he said. Then, continuing his own debate, he admitted that all close plays (and some not so close) are going to be called hits: calling a play a hit keeps an error from the fielder and boosts the batter's average while only possibly hurting the pitcher's ERA. It's really no wonder they call these things hits.

Still, Bill is absolutely right. The point of errors is to list plays that the fielder should have managed. "These guys are major leaguers," says Bill, and they should be able to handle hard hit balls. Outfielders should be able to manage the stadium lights or the sun. Outfielders who misplay singles into triples (to take a random example) should not credit Juan Encarnacion (for example) with a triple. Single + error. I realize that there will always be some subjectivity to these calls, but can't we make them more helpful? Calling a ball hit right at Bill Hall a hit when he drops it serves no useful purpose and both misinforms about the batter, the pitcher, and, most vitally, the fielder. The realm of fielding statistics needs all the help it can get.

Also, Bill Hall was the subject of another bad judgment by the scorer on Monday. With Pierre on first in the ninth and nobody out, Castillo hit a bunt right to Billy. Bill tried to bare-hand it and dropped it: runners on first and second, nobody out. This was a blatant error. Castillo's kind of fast, but not that fast, and Bill would have had him if he had caught the ball in his glove - he may have been thinking "second base!" The scorer ruled that a hit, which blew me away.

Wednesday, July 5th, 2005: Milwaukee at Florida
Tonight there was a close play at the plate as Chris Capuano bunted with the bases loaded and one out. It was a fantastic bunt, and Nate Bump made an excellent play on it, but Paul LoDuca dropped the ball on a possible force out. This play is exceptional because the previous night LoDuca gave up the winning run when he dropped a tag on Trent Durrington as he slid in for the go ahead run in the eighth inning yesterday. Two days in a row he cost the Marlins a run (and possibly a win).

Prediction for the Second Half
The Brewers are playing pretty good ball after a run of bad luck, and now stand at 40-43, after a road win against the Marlins and an injured Josh Beckett.

To anyone who's listened, I've lamented the Brewers bad luck. Last year, they stood at 43-40 and they didn't deserve to be there. This year, they're 40-43 and should be...better. According to the Pythagorean win expectations (Runs Scored^2)/(Runs Scored^2 + Runs Allowed^2), the Brewers should be winning at a .529 clip, which would be good enough for a record of 44-39. Perhaps not playoff worthy, but definitely good enough for a fine season. Projected to 162 games, they'd be at 86-76 for the season. I'll take it, especially with (drool) Prince Fielder coming up, Lyle Overbay yet to be traded, and Doug Melvin's ability to scoop up excellence from the free agent pool (I speak of Doug Davis, Victor Santos, Keith Ginter, and Russell Branyan).

So, how can we expect the Brewers to do the rest of the year? Last year, their 43-40 record was a complete fluke, and they ate dirt after the break, losing over 50 of their final 70+ games. So, is this team ready to go the way of the 2004 version? Or are they not as fluky? To check, I'd compare the players current value to what Baseball Prospectus expected each player's value to be this season:

Position Players

2005 Real Version			2005 Expected
Player	Position	Value	Exp Value	Improve/Decline?
Damian Miller	C	.027	-.150	Decline
Lyle Overbay	1B	.207	.013	Decline
Rickie Weeks	2B	.132	-.064	Decline
Bill Hall	3B	.174	-.160	Decline
J.J. Hardy	SS	-.291	-.073	Improve
Carlos Lee	LF	.231	.114	Decline
Brady Clark	CF	.156	-.166	Decline
Geoff Jenkins	RF	.023	.073	Improve

Uh-oh. 7 declines versus 2 improves. Still, the stats (I believe) are a bit wonky. The players are compared to their peers at the position, and in the NL, there are a few week positions. For one, there's no Barry Bonds, so Carlos Lee's high Value is not as fluky as it looks. His stats are very close to what BP predicted. Second, catching is also really miserable this year. Damian is outplaying his prediction (in rating), but he's (1) been playing less, and (2) he's only about at his 65% spot - nothing too ridiculous.

As for the others...Well, Brady Clark and Bill Hall are playing way over their heads, Weeks has made a jump thanks to his youth, and Overbay, despite the discrepancy above, is also only at his 65% or so. His rates are up thanks to a dive in some of the NL's first basemen, notably Sean Casey, Jim Thome, and Todd Helton. (There are only two guys to replace them: Nick Johnson, who keeps getting hurt, and Carlos Delgado, who's been Jim Thome-esque.) Still, expect some regression there.

Still, BP foresees a lot of problems with an offense that is already mediocre. Not good.

Pitchers

2005 Real Version			2005 Expected
Player	Position	Value	Exp Value	Improve/Decline?
Doug Davis	SP	29.4	18.7	Decline
Ben Sheets	SP	27.6	57.7	Improve
Chris Capuano	SP	51.6	31	Decline
Victor Santos	SP	39.8	4.4	Decline
Matt Wise	RP	29	6.3	Decline
Derek Turnbow	RP	25	1.1	Decline
Ricky Bottalico	RP	10	7.3	Decline
Mike Adams	RP	9.2	10	Same

Zowie. That's 6 more declines and the two that aren't are due to injury, or else Adams would be too high, and Ben would be a lot closer at the least.

So this team is just not that good? All signs seem to point to a team about to collapse again. I don't think so. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the Brewers are an odd team to evaluate with predictive stats. The only ones that are easy to get a handle on for BP's PECOTA system are Ricky Bottalico, Ben Sheets, Damian Miller, Geoff Jenkins, and Carlos Lee.

Maybe this is the fan in me talking, but BP's evaluations just seem...off. They always say how much better it is to find a closer than pay $10 million to a guy who is 10% better, but then their predictions for guys like Turnbow, Wise, and Adams are really low. Also, there are fewer at-bats usable for a lot of the Brewers' players. Overbay got gypped on playing time for a year or so in Arizona. Hardy missed last season. Weeks has less than 600 minor league at bats to evaluate. I think Mike Maddux' job as a pitching coach should be taken into consideration: he has helped 3 mediocre (or worse) pitchers to excellent seasons 2 years in a row: Victor Santos, Chris Capuano, and Doug Davis (though Davis is starting to slip, I think).

In my eyes, I see Santos, Capuano, Hall, and Clark all playing over their heads. I see Jenkins and Hardy as due for improvement, and the addition of Sheets after a month and a half is a big plus, too. But I also see Weeks playing better as the season rolls on.

Overall, I suppose I see the Brewers Runs Scored/Allowed slipping a bit. There are too many players that BP thinks are way over their heads for me to see them contending. They had a good few months, but will probably slip back in their run production and their run allowance will increase. Still, I feel that this team is better than PECOTA is giving them credit for. I'll beg them at 75 wins for the year, and we'll call it a compromise.

2004 articles

	Brewer Runs	Oppt. Runs
Inn. 1-3	56	97
Inn. 4-6	79	76
Inn. 7-9	86	70
Inn. 10+	3	0

Team	Diff. in Runs Scored	Diff. in Runs Allowed	Total Difference
Arizona Diamondbacks	+2.56	-17.81	+20.37
Pittsburgh Pirates	+0.40	-18.93	+19.33
St. Louis Cardinals	+4.50	-12.17	+16.67
Cincinnati Reds	+3.57	-12.75	+16.32
Philadelphia Phillies	-0.72	-16.85	+16.13
LA Dodgers	+6.11	-7.60	+13.71
Atlanta Braves	+10.98	-2.22	+13.20
San Diego Padres	+11.63	+0.67	+10.96
Houston Astros	-5.38	-6.97	+1.59
San Francisco Giants	-1.30	+6.64	-7.94
Chicago Cubs	-2.98	+8.37	-11.35
New York Mets	-7.03	+8.02	-15.05
Colorado Rockies	-12.53	+2.56	-15.09
Florida Marlins	+0.11	+20.62	-20.51
Washington Nationals	-9.81	+11.44	-21.25
Milwaukee Brewers	-14.54	+22.59	-37.09

Player	VORP	Salary
Adrian Beltre	6.3	$11.4 Million
Ryan Doumit	6.1	$333,000 (Lg Minimum)
Damian Jackson	6.1	$700,000
Jose Castillo	5.8	$348,000 (Lg Minimum)
Scott Podsednik	5.8	$700,000
Mike Matheny	5.7	$3.35 Million
Corey Koskie	5.6	$3.5 Million
Tino Martinez	5.3	$2.75 Million
Jose Cruz Jr.	5.3	$4 Million
Abraham Nunez	5.0	$625,000
Juan Rivera	4.8	$390,000

Player	OPS - Nobody On	OPS - Runners on	Difference (Runners-Nobody)
Tomo Ohka	.972	.555	-.417
Dave Bush	.550	.714	+.164
Chris Capuano	.627	.527	-.100
Doug Davis	.935	.805	-.130

Brewers	.255 BA	.333 OBP	.373 SLG	41.16 Runs Created
Opponents	.211BA	.294 OBP	.351 SLG	31.55 Runs Created

Pos	Name	NL Central Rank
C	Damian Miller	2nd (Tie)
1B	Prince Fielder	5th
2B	Rickie Weeks	1st
3B	Corey Koskie	4th
SS	J.J. Hardy	2nd
LF	Carlos Lee	2nd
CF	Brady Clark	4th
RF	Geoff Jenkins	1st
Rotat.	Sheets, Davis, Capuano Ohka, Bush	2nd
Pen	Turnbow, Wise, Helling Kolb, De La Rosa	3rd

Team	# of Games	Runs per Game vs. Crew
Los Angeles	6	6.3
Florida	4	5.5
Cincinnati	6	5.3
NY Yankees	3	5.3
St. Louis	10	5.1
Toronto	3	4.3
Houston	5	4.2
Minnesota	6	4.2
Chicago Cubs	12	4.0
Atlanta	3	4.0
Philadelphia	9	4.0
San Diego	3	4.0
Pittsburgh	11	3.5
San Francisco	7	3.4
Tampa Bay	3	3.3
Washington	8	3.0
Arizona	3	2.3
Colorado	3	1.0

Date	Innings Pitched	Run Support	Runs Allowed	Win, Loss, ND
May 4	5.0	6	0	WIN
May 9	5.0	1	3	ND
May 14	7.0	0	0	ND
May 19	5.0	4	2	WIN
May 25	4.0	1	4	LOSS
May 30	6.0	1	5	LOSS
June 4	5.0	3	1	WIN
June 9	6.0	7	2	WIN
June 15	7.0	2	0	WIN
June 20	3.0	1	4	LOSS
June 26	6.1	7	2	WIN
July 1	6.0	10	4	WIN
July 6	6.2	4	2	WIN
July 11	5.2	5	4	ND
July 16	6.0	3	2	WIN
July 21	6.0	0	1	LOSS
July 26	7.0	1	3	LOSS
July 31	5.0	1	4	LOSS
August 5	3.2	3	9	LOSS
August 11	4.2	1	7	LOSS
August 17	6.1	3	1	WIN
August 22	6.2	4	4	ND
August 27	4.2	0	6	LOSS
September 1	6.0	2	1	ND
September 11	2.1	0	8	LOSS
September 16	4.0	0	4	LOSS
September 21	6.0	6	2	WIN
September 26	4.0	4	6	LOSS