Crime rates perhaps paint the clearest and most predictable picture of the future. Using crime rates from 1973-1994 as a baseline, we predict the following:

(These crime projections are based on data from both the Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR) and the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) Report.

In the year 2030 alone:

• One of 46 individuals will be a victim of violent crime,
• One of 430 women will be a victim of forcible rape,
• One of 165 individuals will be a victim of robbery,
• One of 78 individuals will be a victim of aggravated assault.

What this means is, using 2030 as the baseline, on average each person during their lifetime will be a victim of 1.63 violent crimes, almost 1 in 6 women will be the victim of forcible rape, 1 of 2 people will be a victim of robbery, and everyone will be a victim of aggravated assault.

(these figures were derived by dividing the population size by the number of crimes. In actuality certain groups of people will be vicimized more than others.)

Crime Projections

Here below are a few example, by crime category, of projected number of victims - if trends from 1973 - 1993 continue: 

An alarming statistic is....from 1973 to 1992 violent crimes within the United States increased 81 percent per 100,000 people. Since 1960 violent crimes increased 470 percent per 100,000 people.

Murder, No Increase?

The following comes from the Baltimore Sun, Thursday, February 2, 1995: It is surprising that murder rates increases have been so negligible, especially when all of the other categories of violent crime have increased so drastically. The following comes from the Baltimore Sun, Thursday, February 2, 1995:

        A study released yesterday shows that the country's murder rate is about the same as it was six decades ago and 
        that the rate for minorities has actually decreased in the past two decades.
 
        But the homicide rate for children under 14 is "at or near record highs for the post World War II era." The study said.  
        And rates for preschoolers 4 and younger have risen to their highest levels in 4 years.
 
        "The fears that we're losing our youth to violence is true," said Carol J. De Vista, director of publications for the 
         Population Reference Bureau, a research group that conducted the study.  "There are clear signs of increased
        pre-school risk. They are becoming more vulnerable to violence much earlier."
 
        ...There's no debating one fact: The United States is still the murder capital of the world.  Overall,  there are about 10 
        murders per 100,000 people in the United States,  far higher than other industrialized nations. 

Property Crime

From 1973 to 1992 overall property crime grew 63%. Larceny/theft increased 67% and motor vehicle theft escalated 70%.

Youth

Violent crime rates will probably increase at much a greater rates than currently projected. Youth are the fastest growing segment of the criminal population. Between 1982 and 1991, the arrest rate for juveniles increased 93 percent for murder. The arrest rate for aggravated assault increased 72 percent, and for forcible rape 24 percent. On the other hand, crime rates among adults rose approximately 5 percent.

Leniency of Punishments and Overburdened Prison Systems

Progressively lenient punishments are another indicator of likely accelerated crime rates. Consider the following:

• The expected prison sentence for all serious crimes has decreased more than 60 percent since 1954. In 1954 the expected time in prison for all serious crimes was 22.5 days. In 1990 it was 8 days. In 1992, the median prison sentence for murder was about 15 years, while the average time served was a little more than 5 years.
• In 1990, the expected punishment for someone committing a murder was 1.8 years in prison; for rape, the expected sentence was 60 days; for robbery, 23 days; and for aggravated assault, 6.4 days.1
• Fewer than 1 in 10 serious crimes results in imprisonment.
• Now, nearly three out of every four convicted criminals are not incarcerated.
• In 1990, 62 percent of the estimated 4.3 million persons in correctional custody in the U.S. were on probation, and 12 percent were on parole.
• The U.S. imprisons rates are over five times greater than most other industrialized nations.
• Fewer than one in ten serious crimes results in imprisonment, and 30 percent of all violent crime today is committed by individuals while they are out on pretrial release, bail, or parole.2
• The rate of 519 prisoners for every 100,000 Americans was topped only by Russia's 558 per 100,000 among the 52 nations surveyed. (This rate is 10 times higher than that of Japan, Sweden, Ireland, and the Netherlands.)3
• There are 1.3 million inmates in American prisons and jails, costing the nation $26.8 billion annually. The doubling of the inmate population since 1980 has had little impact on violent crime.4
• A decade ago, an estimated 45,000 to 55,000 felony and serious misdemeanor cases were dropped because of problems created by the exclusionary rule.5
• Many criminals either are never caught, or, if found guilty, do not serve their entire prison sentence. Every year, over 60,000 criminals convicted of a violent crime never go to prison--for every hundred crimes reported only three criminals go to prison. The Bureau of Justice Statistics has found that only 45.5 percent of court-ordered confinement is served on average, and 51 percent of violent offenders sent to prison are released in two years or less.6
• A criminal committing a felony has a 1-in-100 chance of being convicted and serving jail time.7
• In 1896 the average jail term for robbery was 56 months, in 1988 it was 38 months.8

Too Much Crime Committed by Very Few

While the problem is severe, statistics illustrate that a small percentage of criminals commit the vast majority of violent crimes. A small percentage of career criminals commit a majority of violent crimes. A 1991 study done by The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms indicated that 471 armed criminals had a total of 3,088 felony convictions--an average of 6.55 felonies each.

Over 30 percent of the murders in this country are committed by people on probation, parole, or bail. Faced with prison overcrowding, seventeen states have begun emergency release programs. Overall, the risk of punishment has declined in the past forty years while the annual number of serious crimes committed has skyrocketed.9

Crime is Discriminatory

The crime crisis is particularly severe among minorities and the poor. The U.S. homicide rate for black males between the ages of fifteen and twenty-four is 283 times that of male homicide rates in seventeen other nations. And homicide is now the leading cause of death for blacks aged fifteen to thirty-four. It is estimated that a twenty-year-old black male has a greater chance of being murdered on the streets than a soldier in World War II of dying in combat.10

• Poor households are victimized more often than upper-income households.
• In 1992, households with incomes of less than $7,500 experienced crime at a rate of 136 per 1,000 compared with the rate of 83.3 per 1,000 for households with incomes between $30,000 and $49,000.

Background Information on Crime Projections

The crime projections are based on data from both the Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR) and the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) Report. The UCR only measures those crimes reported to law enforcement officials. The NCVS attempts to measure those crimes not reported to officials. According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, of all crimes measured by the NCVS report from 1973-1992, only 37% were reported to law enforcement officials. Of violent crimes, only 50% were reported. (This does not include homicides-murders and nonnegligent manslaughter - which the NCVS does not measure.)

Based on NCVS Reports, the breakdown of crimes reported and not reported from the years 1973 to 1992 are as follows: