| Matt's Synoptic Forecast Weather Page |
| Concentrating on large-scale weather phenomena affecting Eastern Pennsylvania and the tropics. |
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| SATURDAY FEBRUARY 22, 2003 |
| Once again there is an active pattern on the weather map which gives me something to talk about. A well developed cyclone currently over Tennessee/kentucky will continue to intensify considerably as it works its way north and east. Advection of high dew points from the gulf region is considerable with this system; there will be no shortage of moisture to the system. Steady rainfall has been continuing accross the region this afternoon and should persist into late Sunday morning. The previously fallen snow will absorb a bit of moisture initially, but, as we are seeing, once it beings to melt, larger amounts of water will flow accross the Earth at once. A few of my friends back in Delaware County have already experienced flooding problems in their basements. Now the exciting part... it appears that temperature and dew point values in the warm sector will be high enough to support modest CONVECTION. For those of you who don't speak weather geek language, rising motion in the atmosphere = THUNDERSTORMS. Thunderstorms! I've been waiting to hear that word in a forecast since like what.. September?! Although it is somewhat unlikely that we will see anything substantial here.. if we do hear a rumble of thunder, it will occur between dinner-time tonight and about 3 AM tomorrow morning. Now, tomorrow will prove to be quite interesting. As this powerful cyclone continues to pull warm moist air from the gulf and race out to sea, it will intensify even more profoundly. Because the core (minimum central pressure) of this mid-latitude cyclone will be passing directly over pennsylvania tonight, and because the cyclone is relatively fast-moving, we are going to see VERY POWERFUL WINDS behind the system tomorrow. Very strong, gusty winds tomorrow. It would be prudent to secure any loose objects outdoors and to exercise caution when walking or driving. The clouds should clear out of the region by later tomorrow morning (along with the powerful winds) and clear - partly cloudy skies will prevail through early Monday morning. During the day on Monday, however, another low is forecast to cross the region. This low will have considerably less moisture supply, but still has the potential to bring rain.. changing over to snow. Following that brief episode, high pressure is forecast to build in from the plain states signaling a return to fair weather and seasonable temperatured for the remainder of the forseeable forecast period (the remainder of the work week anyhow). Matt 2/22/2003 1540 EST 2040z |