Proposing
to Create a New Market in Human Interplanetary Exploration
A Peek
into the Future
The Isdris 1 was
The three-man crew spent 12 days on the
lunar surface, traversed 500 kilometers in a pressurized surface rover, and
returned over 200 kilograms of selected lunar surface samples. As the first
Asian country to mount a lunar expedition under the terms of the Prometheus
contract, Indonesian scientists are already anticipating becoming a mecca for
lunar studies in the Pacific Rim, and major scientific
collaborations with
On this news, Lockheed Martin stock rallied
on Wall Street to close at . . .
Creating
a New Market
How realistic is the scenario presented
above? How could a country as small as
Almost forty years ago, a young president
committed our nation to land a man on the Moon and return him safely to Earth.
Although presented as a bold exploration into the future, Project Apollo's true
parents were politics and international competition. When the program ended in
1972, it was ironically a victim of its own success. The achievement of its
goal ended the justification for its own existence.
In 1989, President George Bush launched a
NASA program called SEI--the Space Exploration Initiative. SEI's mandate was to
send humans to the Moon and Mars, but in NASA's hands it swiftly became a
bloated excuse to spend hundreds of billions of dollars. Hundreds of pet NASA
projects were attached to the program, and Congress moved hastily to kill a
program that was estimated to cost $500 billion.
Now it is 1998 and no space agency has any
plans for human lunar exploration. They are convinced that it must cost $50
billion, take 20 years, and have no tangible benefits. By and large, most lunar
exploration scenarios give them good reason for pessimism.
Prometheus is a new approach to the problem
for our corporation. For years we have hoped that NASA would talk Congress into
funding lunar exploration, and then hoped that we could win the contracts to
build the hardware. In this scenario, we will build and develop a simple,
low-cost human lunar mission and sell the exploration service to whatever
nation, corporation, institution or individual that
wishes to purchase it!
Is this possible? Not under the expensive
and complicated scenarios NASA puts forth for going to the Moon. One should not
be surprised, however, when you consider their growth as an organization comes
from taxpayer money. Our corporation would take an entirely different
approach--as simple and low cost as possible, which, appropriately enough, leads to a vastly superior mission concept. Our
incentive is not "How big can we make it?" but "How inexpensively
can we do this so that we can recover our investment and start making
profit?"
The desire to explore space is not confined
to the
In 2001, Lockheed initiates the Prometheus
program. A heavy-lift launch vehicle, lunar lander, and two surface vehicles
are developed for roughly $5 billion. In 2005, Lockheed begins to sell these
missions as "turn-key" operations for $800 million apiece. Initially
NASA opposes Prometheus, then hesistates, but under congressional pressure
purchases two missions. Later that year the Japanese government follows suit,
then the British and German. Soon Lockheed is selling 5-6 missions a year and
making $4 billion annually. Stock values soar on a program that Wall Street
initially dismissed as "doomed to failure." And in 2011, Lockheed
launches the first manned mission to Mars for the
How do we
do it?
Appropriately enough, the majority of the
precursor work that is necessary to make the Prometheus scenario a reality is
already under way in the corporation today. Each of these titles links to
another page describing the program in much greater detail.
2000-2005: Prometheus Heavy-Lift Launch
Vehicle (HLLV)
The technology to make the HLLV a reality is being developed today by the
X-33/VentureStar reusable launch vehicle program. The HLLV is a 10-meter
diameter, constant cross-section vehicle with a first-stage methane/oxygen
annular aerospike engine, filament-wound composite fuel tanks, and highly
simplified pad operations. It is designed to inject 60 tonne payloads to the
Moon and 53 tonne payloads to Mars; as well as to be integrated and processed
horizontally. The vehicle uses high-energy, environmentally-friendly
propellants in all its stages and systems.
Despite its size, its design and technology
requirements are simple and straightforward, and far less challenging than VentureStar. Low vehicle cost comes
through an uncomplicated design and devlopment, ease of manufacturablity, simplified
operations, and frequent launch rate. Not only can it support missions to the
Moon, Mars, and Uranus, but its size and payload volume make possible missions
that can barely be conceived today, such as 50 tonne GEO super-platforms, large
orbital tourist facilities, and massive satellite constellation deployment.
2006-2010: Lunar Surface Refueling and
Rendezvous (LSRR)
Due
to the fortuitous discovery of water ice at the poles of the Moon by the
Lockheed Martin spacecraft Lunar
Prospector, a new lunar exploration scenario has been made possible at
a fraction of previous costs. In the LSRR scheme, an HLLV would launch a 60
tonne unmanned lunar lander to the Moon. Touching down at the lunar north pole, it would deploy its cargo: a 20 tonne
nuclear-powered ice miner that will bake lunar soil to release water, which
would be purified and collected. After acquiring 40 tonnes of lunar water, it
would drive several hundred kilometers to a predetermined landing site, and
wait for the cold lunar night to come to begin to separate 12 tonnes of water
into 10 tonnes of liquid hydrogen/oxygen propellant.
As the sun rose on the landing site, a human
crew, launched to the Moon four days earlier on an HLLV, would home in on the
beacon signal of the ice miner and land within a few meters. The second
lander's payload would be a pressurized rover, and the crew would disembark and
enter the rover for a two-week lunar geological traverse. In their absence, the
ice miner would refuel the lander with the 10 tonnes of LH2/LOX that it needs
to return directly to Earth. The crew would return, enter the landing vehicle,
and ascend directly to Earth. Before reentry, the crew module would detach from
the remainder of the landing vehicle, configure itself for reentry, and
ultimately splash down, while the other portion of the lander is consumed in
the atmosphere. The ice miner, still carrying sufficient water for two more
missions, would drive to the next landing site and prepare for another crew.
2011-2015: Mars Direct
During the SEI fiasco in 1991, two Martin Marietta engineers, David
Baker and Robert Zubrin, developed an extraordinarily efficient, low-cost, and
technologically feasible way to send human crews to Mars. They called it Mars Direct.
Every 26 months the launch windows to Mars
opens up; on the first launch window, an unmanned Earth Return Vehicle (ERV) is
sent to Mars. It lands and begins converting 5 tonnes of onboard hydrogen into
100 tonnes of methane and oxygen by reacting the
hydrogen with the carbon dioxide of the Martian atmosphere. After it is fully
fueled and verified, a human crew of four is sent to Mars on the next launch
window. After a 6-month transit, they land next to the ERV and conduct 18
months of surface exploration using a pressurized rover. After 18 months, Mars
and Earth have lined up properly again, and the crew boards the ERV and
launches directly back to Earth, arriving 6 months later.
Mars Direct is simple, safe, and
cost-effective. It can use the same HLLV as the lunar mission, and the
technology development requirements are minimal. Lockheed Martin conceived Mars
Direct; Lockheed Martin can build Mars Direct . . . and sell it to the world at
a profit.
2010-2030: Uranus Helium-3 Mining
Controlled thermonuclear fusion has been a dream of scientists for
decades. In the early part of the 21st century, we will see it come to pass.
The simplest type of fusion
reaction involves fusing two isotopes of hydrogen, deuterium and tritium,
into helium and neutrons. Tritium is a radioactive, artificial isotope and the
neutron flux of the fusion reaction will leave the reactor system itself
radioactive. A more difficult, but far more powerful reaction is to fuse an
isotope of helium, helium-3, with deuterium, producing only helium 4 and a
proton. In addition to superior energy release, the He3/D reaction does not
irradiate the reactor vessel. Unfortunately, there is almost no helium-3 on
Earth.
Some lunar enthusiasts point out that the
solar wind has emplanted helium-3 in the lunar soil for billions of years.
However, the He3 concentration is so low that massive amounts of equipment and
manpower are necessary to extract helium-3 from the lunar surface. Vast areas
must be plowed up and huge amounts of energy consumed to extract a vanishing
small resource. Lunar helium-3 mining is a daunting and expensive task.
There are other resources for helium-3. The
atmospheres of the gas giant planets (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune) are
almost entirely composed of hydrogen and helium. It would be possible to send a unmanned, nuclear-powered spacecraft to Uranus and return
10-20 tonnes of helium-3. The commercial value of helium-3 is uncertain, since
no market exists today (since there is no resource to provide) but estimates of
the value of 10 tonnes of helium-3 range from $20-200 billion. A mission to
recover this resource could be mounted in this timeframe for $1-2 billion.
Other
Potential Markets
Large scale satellite constellation
deployment
Motorola, Teledesic, and Globalstar are
large LEO and GEO communication satellite constellations; it is likely that
larger systems will follow in the future. The Prometheus HLLV would offer
investors the capability to launch large numbers of satellites at once at low
cost, filling an orbital plane on each launch. Delivering these satellites to
orbit quickly accelerates the rate of return of investors-- the savings on one
constellation alone might merit the entire development cost of the launch
vehicle.
Large geosynchronous satellites
The past few years have seen a trend towards
larger and larger geosychronous (GEO) communications satellites. Even as
transponders and electronics get smaller, GEOsat developers respond by packing
more and more of them on larger and larger satellites. There seems little
reason to believe this trend will not continue in the future, and the paucity
of orbital slots will lead comsat developers to build
the biggest satellites that launch vehicles will accommodate. One can only imagine
the size of comsat a Prometheus HLLV could launch--a
orbital system with millions of channels and hundreds of kilowatts of power.
Large astronomical facilities
Future astronomical facilities, such as the
Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST), involve primary mirrors with large
diameters (8 meters). A great deal of the mission design goes into the
packaging, deployment, and verification of such structures on orbit. The 10m
payload shroud of the Prometheus HLLV makes it possible to launch these spacecraft
with all their surfaces deployed and verified. Also, in concert with lunar
exploration, this vehicle could facilitate the delivery of large astronomical
facilites to the far side of Moon.
Does Prometheus compete
with VentureStar?
No. Prometheus aims for a different market
than VentureStar, one currently unserviced by any vehicle. Where
VentureStar aims to capture the market for ISS resupply, LEO and GEO
satellites, Prometheus aims to create a totally new market in lunar and Mars
exploration. In fact, there are many enterprises in which a
Prometheus/VentureStar scenario would be optimal.
An illustration would be a potential orbital
tourism market. For a "weekend in LEO", a Prometheus HLLV could
deliver a single large (10m diameter) pressurized module to orbit capable of
hosting 20-40 visitors; an "orbital hotel." The facility would then
be serviced by VentureStar launches, bringing intrepid visitors to LEO to
experience the most exciting three days of their lives. Extensions of these
concepts would see VentureStar servicing a host of facilities orbited in a
single launch of a Prometheus HLLV.
Prometheus is also dependent on the
successful completion of the VentureStar program. Necessary technologies in
aerospike engines, cryogenic composite tank design, and horizontal assembly and
processing will be demonstrated by the X-33. Rather than being an extension of
a current expendable vehicle, the Prometheus HLLV is a direct descendent of the
VentureStar.
Getting the
Ball Rolling
How does the project begin? Well, it begins
with a decision to continue funding research into the HLLV and LSRR scenario at
a low level. This will allow designs, weights, and technology developments
necessary to be researched and optimized.
This is estimated to take a year-and-a-half
or so, with a group of less than 10 people. Then we reach the point where we
begin to present our ideas and concepts to potential customers: governments,
corporations, NASA, even individuals. Things really get started when we locate
our first customer. To begin development, they make a $300-500 million deposit
on the first lunar mission. This is not a loan guarantee, nor is it development
money--it is a deposit on a two-week lunar mission, and in the event our
corporation defaults on delivery in the agreed time frame, the money is
returned in its entirety with appropriate interest.
Then the clock is ticking. The HLLV, lunar
lander, ice miner, and pressurized rover all begin development with a simple,
inflexible set of parameters:
|
Prometheus HLLV |
Deliver 60 tonnes on a translunar trajectory |
|
Lunar Lander |
Deliver 20 tonnes of payload and a 5 tonne crew capsule anywhere on the Moon, and return with the crew capsule. |
|
Ice Miner |
Recover 40 tonnes of water from the poles, deliver it to the landing site, and split 12 tonnes into LH2 and LOX. Mass less than 20 tonnes, unfueled. |
|
Pressurized Rover |
Support a crew of 3 for 14 days over a specified distance. Mass less than 20 tonnes, fueled. |
Four to five years later, the first lunar
mission is delivered to the customer, and upon its successful completion, the
fee for the mission is paid. From there on, it's Economics 101, with a new
market created and a new product being offered, at a reasonable price.
Soon, the lunar market is returning $3-4
billion in annual revenue. Part of these funds are
used to develop the Mars Direct mission, and the Uranus helium-3 miner. The
first Mars mission is developed for $6 billion, and the first mission is
launched in 2012 for a fee of $3 billion. A manned Mars mission launched at
each opportunity (every 26 months) thus returns an annual
revenue of $1.5 billion.
In 2014, the first Uranian He3 mission is
launched, and subsequent missions are launched during every 5 years.
Development costs for the Uranus mission are $2 billion for the spacecraft, and
$7 billion for DHe3 fusion reactor development. Profit begins flowing on the
return of the first mission in 2020. Assuming every five years a 15 tonne
shipment returns at a value of $60 billion, a revenue
of $12 billion annually is realized into the foreseeable future.
Hence, we see a successive and highly profitable
series of missions. Three new markets are created, with high growth potential.
And although development difficulty increases at each step, profit margin grows
exponentially.
The Future
that Could Be
"That's funny...I always thought
the future was what we made of it..."
Jodie
Foster in Contact
"It's not a
miracle--we just decided to do it."
Tom
Hanks in Apollo 13
Predicting the future is a
dangerous game, and I do not pretend to predict the future. But let me create
for you a future that could be, if we choose to make it.
Let's look back from the perspective of
2030, the end of Project Prometheus.
Two bases have been constructed on the Moon.
NASA has funded 43 missions to the lunar surface, with their first launched in
2005.
The beginnings of a colony are being
constructed on Mars. Since NASA's first Mars landing in 2013, they have
launched ten human missions to the Martian surface and the Japanese and Germans
have each launched two. 22 people live on Mars on five-year rotations.
Fossilized ancient lifeforms were discovered in the floor of Gusev Crater
dating back 3.2 billion years. Their structures bear such close resemblance to
terran bacteria that the hottest debate in astrobiology now is which planet
life first arose upon.
78 tonnes of liquid helium-3 have been
returned from Uranus. Since the achievement of DHe3 ignition by Lockheed Martin
scientists in 2008, DHe3 fusion as achieved a 19% market share in the US, with
six reactors built and twelve under construction. Nine vehicles are in various
stages of transit between Earth and Uranus, with two launched yearly. Fusion
revenues have made Lockheed Martin the most profitable corporation in the
world, and DHe3 fusion has boosted the US GDP to $53 trillion.
How the
Project got its Name
Prometheus was the god who ascended
I have named this project after him because
we, too, plan to ascend to the heavens and bring back the fire of God. The
fires of fusion energy will unshackle the powers of mankind like never before,
releasing the world economy from the political and environmental burdens of fossil
fuels and nuclear fission. The transportation technologies we will develop will
enable us to use the resources of the solar system to usher in a golden age of
exploration and colonization.
Lockheed Martin is the logical choice to
undertake such a task. Of all corporate entities, they are in the ideal
position, with resources in expendable and reusable launch vehicles,
exploratory spacecraft, life support systems, fusion research, and technology
applications. Now the only real question is, what
future will we make for ourselves?